Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Hurricane Ian Makes Landfall on Florida Gulf Coast as High-End Category 4 Tropical Cyclone: Overview and Update With Assorted Imagery Plus Comments on The Left's Usual Garbage Reaction

Tampa Bay Area NWSFO low-bandwidth radar (KTBW) image, looped 1355 - 1455 EDT 28 Sept 2022

This entry contains numerous NWS radar images to include radar animations, satellite loops, and both National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NWS Forecast Office (NWSFO) graphics both specific to Hurricane Ian and county warning area (CWA) advisory maps, as well as a few news item ones.

Fox News.com headlines regarding Hurricane Ian's landfall today, September 28, 2022

With a few exceptions, most of these images are not captioned but the file names contain relevant information.

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Wednesday early afternoon.

The brunt of Hurricane Ian thankfully has spared the Miami area (see bottom of entry), but not so the Florida Gulf coast centered on the Fort Myers / Cape Coral area.


In fact, as I write this -- at 2:36 p.m. EDT -- Hurricane Ian's eastern eyewall is making landfall at / near Captiva Island as the tropical cyclone spirals slowly north-northeastward at a very oblique angle to the Florida Gulf coastline.


After looking ragged and unimpressive on the satellite loops last night, the tropical cyclone underwent a rapid intensification in the wee hours to become high-end category 4 hurricane with (as of 11 a.m. EDT) top sustained winds of 155 mph and central pressure of 937 mb (27.67").


Above: GOES East GeoColor mode SECONUS satellite loop 1246 - 1656 Z (8:46 a.m. - 12:56 p.m. EDT) 28 Sept 2022.

Below: Photo sent to me by Chris from his condo balcony in the Midtown section of Atlanta looking southeast. The cirrus shield over central Georgia -- representing the northwestern periphery of the anticyclonic outflow from Hurricane Ian -- is clearly visible.


Hurricane Ian is threatening a catastrophic strike on the area between Naples and Captiva focused on Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach to include a storm surge up to 18 feet (!).

The storm is forecasted to move -- still at category 1 hurricane or at least tropical storm strength -- across the peninsula on a SSW-to-NNE route to a position very near Flagler Beach (where my dad lives) and reemerge over the Atlantic Ocean.


It now looks like the system will get caught up in the baroclinic zone ahead of a shortwave moving over the Eastern U.S. -- bringing possible hurricane conditions to the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines and heavy rainfall up into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday.


As a result of this motion and track, the expected near-stall over the Florida peninsula and resulting widespread 16 to 24 inches of rainfall is less likely. However, rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches are still possible over much of central and northeast Florida while 2 to 4 inch amounts are forecasted in parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions:

Hurricane Ian 5-day rainfall map valid 8 a.m. EDT 28 Sept 2022 through 8 a.m. EDT 03 Oct 2022

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Before continuing with a reposting of parts of the 7 am and 11 am EDT NHC discussions, and because everything is obscenely politicized to the point of spiritual death by the Totalitarian Left, I am forced to mention that the Democrat Communist Party and its Media Agit-Prop Machine are in full Death Wishing mode on their ever-expanding list of fellow American enemies.


The Degenerate Death Snatch Clapping Left is praying -- well, wishing, since it doesn't believe in any prayer-oriented God, but rather only in its diseased ideologies -- for a totalizing catastrophe on Ron DeSantis's Florida for the sake of its genocidal Communist totalitarianism.

In fact, the Sicko Left had been shitting itself -- in that fashion of schizophrenic and drug-addled homeless types on San Francisco sidewalks in the lawless Democrat shithole cities -- all summer for a category 5 hurricane to obliterate a "Red State," in particular Florida.


This is why the New York Times Climate Cultists, the Washington Post Deep State Regime propagandists, the PMSNBC hatemongers, the demonic harpies of "The View," the Don Lemon brigades of imbelic TV talking heads, and the phalanxes of unloved WOKE WINE WOMEN -- as late-term bloody abortion-crazed as they are barren -- at Salon, Slate, Vox, and The Atlantic -- cannot see anything except through the lens of their murderous and totalizing ideology.


It's worth repeating that this is some mass psychosis formation combo of Climate Cult lunacy, race-and-gender identity Maoism, and, ultimately, a demonically driven hate that seeks nothing less than human extinction -- for their enemies and, ultimately, for themselves.

As for me, I am so GOD ALL FRICKIN' MIGHTY sick and tired of having to interact with the fucking hateful, grotesque, Regime ass-kicking, all-around-degenerate, and thoroughly anti-life American Left.


As for the angry, dementia-addled, and quite creepy pervy notional president, yesterday he yammered incoherently about a link between getting the worthless Covid vaccine and the hurricane. This gets back to the Left's desire from last year and earlier this year to have The Unvaccinated exterminated by whatever means.


He also made weird threats to bypass Gov. DeSantis and "deal directly" with the mayors of Orlando, Tampa, and other affected areas -- to include urgent repairs to the "gender affirming care" reassignment centers and medevac in the puberty blockers, pills, and penis-or-breast removal equipment for school age children.


Now that we've gotten that out of the way below is a partial reposting of both the 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. EDT NHC discussions (#23 and #24, respectively). What follows below is excerpted from the 7 a.m. discussion:


This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This supports a current intensity of 135 kt...


Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4 intensity.


The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian very much due to its large size.


Some fluctuations in intensity are possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida peninsula.


Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the eastern United States.


This motion is expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.


A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and Friday.


The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.


From 11 a.m. discussion:

Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line with the latest consensus aids.


One important change is that Ian is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula (due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida.


While significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with more baroclinic forcing.


Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently follow any evacuation orders in effect.


2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian. Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed to completion.


3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across central Florida.


4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that area.

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As for here in Miami Beach, where we were spared, it's a rather unsettled day with gusty winds -- occasionally spiking to near 50 mph, but mostly in the 20-30 mph range -- and intermittent rain squalls from the outer rain-bands.

Opaque skies sometimes brighten (with diffuse sunlight) and sometimes darken. Winds have been southerly but now that Ian has crossed the latitude of Miami, they'll veer to the west.

Two-day rainfall totals for Sept 26 and 27 were as follows in the MIA/FL/WPB area:

KOPF: 5.82"
KMIA: 5.21" including 3.54" daily record on 9/27
KPBI: 3.44"
KFXE: 3.43"

KFLL: MISSING -- the damn rain gauge is, in fact, broken. (I confirmed it is broken in an email with the MFL NWSFO Warning Coordinator.)

OK, I'm going to wrap up this entry. My plan for this afternoon is to walk down to the South Pointe area (and check if Monty's is open).

I wouldn't ordinarily do this during the workweek -- all the more so in that I'm flat broke until I get paid on Friday. (How I manage to earn almost $100,000 a year, have no dependents, live in a state with no state tax, and still invariably end up broke several days before I get paid is a mystery to me.)


My next planned entry will be in two or three days.

Unless it really warrants it, I'm not going to do any "hurricane aftermath" entries since they're all the same. This includes all attempted score-settling and extraction of vengeance by The Left on the assumption that hurricanes are the punishments meted out by their mentally deranged Golden Calf deities. Frickin' fed up with it.

--Regulus

Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Hurricane Ian Overview and Model Information Ahead of an Expected Florida Gulf Coast Landfall: An Anticipated But Not Guaranteed High-Impact Event for the Tampa Bay Area

GOES East satellite image in daytime GeoColor mode co-moving with Hurricane Ian, looped 1600-2140Z 26 Sept 2022

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Wee hours Tuesday morning.

I made it back from San Diego to Miami Beach on Friday night and had an overextended weekend that has left me out of cash (reliant on a credit card) and feeling unwell.

I will discuss my San Diego trip in a subsequent entry that will include many of the 70+ other pictures I took but haven't posted. (To clarify, It looks like I took 86 pictures in all while there that I kept, i.e., didn't delete, and posted 14 in my previous entry.)

However, for this entry, I need to focus on Hurricane Ian.

GOES East Gulf of Mexico sector satellite image in nighttime spectral mode, looped 0141 - 0436Z 27 Sept 2022

While strengthening with a semi-decent anticyclonic outflow, the tropical cyclone is still lop-sided rather than symmetric and a messy eye. What's more, it's about to encounter six hours' worth of land friction over western Cuba. No, that's not the mountainous part of Cuba, but it's still frictive land rather than warm ocean.

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As of 11 p.m. EDT Sept 27, 2022, the center of Hurricane Ian is at 21.3°N, 83.4°W or 105 miles ESE of the western tip of Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph and the central pressure is 962 mb (28.41" Hg) with the movement NNW at 13 mph.


Above: A portion of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) discussion from 11 p.m. EDT 26 Sept 2022, including key messages and forecast positions / winds. This was issued by NHC Forecaster Pasch, who is another one of those Feds who has been around since the Earth cooled sufficiently to solidify and the oceans rained out of the skies.

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The hurricane is about to cross the western quarter of Cuba on a track that is forecasted to take it into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is also forecasted to encounter -- at least for a 36 to 48 hour period -- favorable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions to allow it to intensify all the way up to a category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 140 mph.

U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) weather advisories (hazards) map with legend, updated 2256 UTC 26 Sept 2022

The legend has the weather hazards / advisories / products in descending order of priority. The map can only show the highest priority hazard in effect even if there are multiple in effect in a given location at a given time. Also, just FYI, "UTC" and "Z" time are the same and are used interchangeably.


In the last update on March 24, 2021, the "Child Abduction Emergency" -- a.k.a., an Amber Alert -- was moved way down the priority list (to #126), just above the last on the list of a Blue Alert (#127), and both their colors are white or "transparent." As a result, you don't have certain states lighting up all yellow/gold at random times, especially during quiet weather periods.

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The hurricane's path is forecasted to start to curve to the northeast as it comes under the influence of the southwesterlies ahead of a large early season trough with expansive leading cold front. (That front would actually have cleared Miami -- the first to do so since May -- but for the hurricane's large tropical envelope.)

NWS NDFD weather map with main surface features and type and likelihood of precipitation looped in 6 or 12-hour increments as shown between 06Z 27 Sept - 00Z 29 Sept 2022

That's definitely an unusual weather map with such a enlongated cold front interacting so dramatically with a major hurricane in that blocking / full stop fashion.

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This will also cause atmospheric conditions to become unfavorable with wind shear / system elongation and dry air entrainment -- and a quick collapse of the tropical cyclone. Depending on whether it gets caught up in the front-end southwesterlies or is left to meander over Georgia, the system will either transition into an extratropical low pressure along the cold front in the North Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic or just peter out over the Southestern U.S.


The current track has the storm posing a major threat to the Tampa / St. Petersburg area with indundation of Tampa Bay and a 7 to 10 foot storm surge.

The models of the past few days -- in particular, the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) -- had the storm moving into the Big Bend coastline of Florida around Cedar Key before making a beeline toward the Mid-Atlantic while the European ensembles insisted the storm would brush the Florida Gulf coast, threatening the Tampa area.


Above: The hi-res NAM run at 18Z 26 Sept 2022, showing MSLP, 3-hour precip., and 850mb temps valid hour 36 / 08Z Sept 29, 2022, SECONUS region. The isobars are wrapped so tightly that it resembles a weird black hole in the open Gulf of Mexico.

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As shown in the image directly above, the shorter range hi-res NAM really winds the storm up into a category 5 monster with a central low of 884 mb (26.10"), which would almost match Wilma's 882 mb (26.05") -- but also hold the center well off the Florida Gulf coast -- while the regular NAM, as well as the GFS and European models show the eye of a much weaker storm brushing the coastline and then slowly coming ashore somewhere between Sarasota and Cedar Key.


Above: The GEFS ensembles at 18Z Sept 26, 2022, for Hurricane Ian's track and intensity shown in a "spaghetti plot" through hour 120. (The black line represents the mean of the ensembles. The ensembles each represent a purposeful slight difference or perturbation to the input data run forward.)


Above: The ECMWF ("European") ensembles at 12Z Sept 26, 2022, for Hurricane Ian's track and intensity shown in a "spaghetti plot" through hour 120. If this verifies -- in particular, the jog toward the Tampa area -- it will be another track success for the European model since its ensemble mean consistently showed it for days.

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The model-forecasted track has trended westward while the intensity forecast has waned somewhat (from central pressures around 920 mb to now around 950 mb) -- but the official NHC forecast still has Ian getting up to a category 4 storm with 140 mph peak sustained winds before weakening by landfall to a category 2/3.

My hunch is the storm won't intensity rapidly if it gets too close to the Florida coastline but it will slow down and perhaps stall -- creating the possibility of 12 to 24 inches of rain around landfall and hence disastrous flooding.

Hurricane Ian 5-day cumulative rainfall forecast in inches for affected region, valid 2 p.m. EDT 26 Sept - 2 p.m EDT 01 Oct 2022

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I thought earlier tonight that the tropical storm warnings now in effect for the southwestern and central portion of the Florida peninsula would be expanded to include Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, but looking at some of the 0Z guidance, I don't think so.

GFS from 0Z 27 Sept 2022, showing MSLP, 6-hour precip., and 1000-500mb thickness (in dekameters) for the SECONUS valid at hour 36 / 12Z 28 Sept 2022, as presented by Tropical Tidbits.com

To clarify, different commercial or academic/research outfits repackage the NCEP and other model output with their own graphical software.

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Below is an excerpt of the NHC discussion at 11 p.m. EDT Sept 26, 2022, written by Pasch. It is broken up with two images of the MFL and TBW NWSFO county warning area (CWA) maps with advisories earlier tonight.

Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during the next couple of days. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected in the short-term official intensity forecast..


However, the SHIPS guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours.


The NHC forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4 intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening. However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions.

KAMX (MFL NWSFO) radar looped 1757 - 1841 EDT 26 Sept 2022

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The outer bands of the system have already brought heavy rainfall here to the Miami area today and tonight. Based on the hour observations pages for each airport climate station, I calculate that for Sept 27th, at least 1.41" fell at Miami International Airport (KMIA) and 1.67" at Fort Lauderdale Executive Aiport (KFXE) while just 0.21" was recorded at Palm Beach International Airport (KPBI).

KAMX (MFL NWSFO) radar looped 2021 - 2117 EDT 26 Sept 2022

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In the case of Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport (KFLL), once again, nothing showed up on its hourly observation page -- and it continues to come in abnormally / suspiciously low. At this point, I'm fairly sure the AWPAG rain gauge at KFLL is broken / malfunctioning.

Consider that these are the September month-to-date (through 9/26) rainfall tallies are:

KMIA: 6.62"
KPBI: 7.54"
KFLL: 2.73"
KFXE: 8.58"

For starters, KFLL and KFXE are only a few miles apart and near the ocean. Secondly, the radar estimated 30-day rainfall total through Sept 26th looks like this -- with KFLL marked by the black box shown here:


Even though there is a coastal and just-offshore minimum, the KFLL total doesn't jibe at all with the radar estimate, which suggests at least 6 inches. (Yes, the radar accumulated total likely over estimates precipitation, but it does so everywhere -- and the other airport tallies are much more in sync with it.)

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As a final point on Hurricane Ian, let me be clear: I do NOT want to go through a major hurricane.

While riding out the storm itself is exhilarating, the aftermath is a horrible, disruptive, and even dangerous mess with (here in South Florida) certain torridly hot/humid conditions, no power for days/weeks, supply chain breakdowns (read: NO FOOD), and personal safety issues if no law enforcement due to the storm destruction (rather than due to the controlled destruction in Communist-run Blue City shitholes with Soros DAs and "Defund the Police" Marxist lunacy).

OK, that's all I had to say about Hurricane Ian for now. Depending on how it plays out, I may have another entry on this topic.

--Regulus