Tampa Bay Area NWSFO low-bandwidth radar (KTBW) image, looped 1355 - 1455 EDT 28 Sept 2022
This entry contains numerous NWS radar images to include radar animations, satellite loops, and both National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NWS Forecast Office (NWSFO) graphics both specific to Hurricane Ian and county warning area (CWA) advisory maps, as well as a few news item ones.
With a few exceptions, most of these images are not captioned but the file names contain relevant information.
Wednesday early afternoon.
The brunt of Hurricane Ian thankfully has spared the Miami area (see bottom of entry), but not so the Florida Gulf coast centered on the Fort Myers / Cape Coral area.
In fact, as I write this -- at 2:36 p.m. EDT -- Hurricane Ian's eastern eyewall is making landfall at / near Captiva Island as the tropical cyclone spirals slowly north-northeastward at a very oblique angle to the Florida Gulf coastline.
After looking ragged and unimpressive on the satellite loops last night, the tropical cyclone underwent a rapid intensification in the wee hours to become high-end category 4 hurricane with (as of 11 a.m. EDT) top sustained winds of 155 mph and central pressure of 937 mb (27.67").
Above: GOES East GeoColor mode SECONUS satellite loop 1246 - 1656 Z (8:46 a.m. - 12:56 p.m. EDT) 28 Sept 2022.
Below: Photo sent to me by Chris from his condo balcony in the Midtown section of Atlanta looking southeast. The cirrus shield over central Georgia -- representing the northwestern periphery of the anticyclonic outflow from Hurricane Ian -- is clearly visible.
Hurricane Ian is threatening a catastrophic strike on the area between Naples and Captiva focused on Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach to include a storm surge up to 18 feet (!).
The storm is forecasted to move -- still at category 1 hurricane or at least tropical storm strength -- across the peninsula on a SSW-to-NNE route to a position very near Flagler Beach (where my dad lives) and reemerge over the Atlantic Ocean.
It now looks like the system will get caught up in the baroclinic zone ahead of a shortwave moving over the Eastern U.S. -- bringing possible hurricane conditions to the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines and heavy rainfall up into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday.
As a result of this motion and track, the expected near-stall over the Florida peninsula and resulting widespread 16 to 24 inches of rainfall is less likely. However, rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches are still possible over much of central and northeast Florida while 2 to 4 inch amounts are forecasted in parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions:
Hurricane Ian 5-day rainfall map valid 8 a.m. EDT 28 Sept 2022 through 8 a.m. EDT 03 Oct 2022
Before continuing with a reposting of parts of the 7 am and 11 am EDT NHC discussions, and because everything is obscenely politicized to the point of spiritual death by the Totalitarian Left, I am forced to mention that the Democrat Communist Party and its Media Agit-Prop Machine are in full Death Wishing mode on their ever-expanding list of fellow American enemies.
The Degenerate Death Snatch Clapping Left is praying -- well, wishing, since it doesn't believe in any prayer-oriented God, but rather only in its diseased ideologies -- for a totalizing catastrophe on Ron DeSantis's Florida for the sake of its genocidal Communist totalitarianism.
In fact, the Sicko Left had been shitting itself -- in that fashion of schizophrenic and drug-addled homeless types on San Francisco sidewalks in the lawless Democrat shithole cities -- all summer for a category 5 hurricane to obliterate a "Red State," in particular Florida.
This is why the New York Times Climate Cultists, the Washington Post Deep State Regime propagandists, the PMSNBC hatemongers, the demonic harpies of "The View," the Don Lemon brigades of imbelic TV talking heads, and the phalanxes of unloved WOKE WINE WOMEN -- as late-term bloody abortion-crazed as they are barren -- at Salon, Slate, Vox, and The Atlantic -- cannot see anything except through the lens of their murderous and totalizing ideology.
It's worth repeating that this is some mass psychosis formation combo of Climate Cult lunacy, race-and-gender identity Maoism, and, ultimately, a demonically driven hate that seeks nothing less than human extinction -- for their enemies and, ultimately, for themselves.
As for me, I am so GOD ALL FRICKIN' MIGHTY sick and tired of having to interact with the fucking hateful, grotesque, Regime ass-kicking, all-around-degenerate, and thoroughly anti-life American Left.
As for the angry, dementia-addled, and quite creepy pervy notional president, yesterday he yammered incoherently about a link between getting the worthless Covid vaccine and the hurricane. This gets back to the Left's desire from last year and earlier this year to have The Unvaccinated exterminated by whatever means.
He also made weird threats to bypass Gov. DeSantis and "deal directly" with the mayors of Orlando, Tampa, and other affected areas -- to include urgent repairs to the "gender affirming care" reassignment centers and medevac in the puberty blockers, pills, and penis-or-breast removal equipment for school age children.
Now that we've gotten that out of the way below is a partial reposting of both the 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. EDT NHC discussions (#23 and #24, respectively). What follows below is excerpted from the 7 a.m. discussion:
This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This supports a current intensity of 135 kt...
Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4 intensity.
The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian very much due to its large size.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida peninsula.
Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the eastern United States.
This motion is expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and Friday.
The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.
From 11 a.m. discussion:
Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line with the latest consensus aids.
One important change is that Ian is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula (due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida.
While significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with more baroclinic forcing.
Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.
1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently follow any evacuation orders in effect.
2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian. Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed to completion.
3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across central Florida.
4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that area.
As for here in Miami Beach, where we were spared, it's a rather unsettled day with gusty winds -- occasionally spiking to near 50 mph, but mostly in the 20-30 mph range -- and intermittent rain squalls from the outer rain-bands.
Opaque skies sometimes brighten (with diffuse sunlight) and sometimes darken. Winds have been southerly but now that Ian has crossed the latitude of Miami, they'll veer to the west.
Two-day rainfall totals for Sept 26 and 27 were as follows in the MIA/FL/WPB area:
KMIA: 5.21" including 3.54" daily record on 9/27
KFLL: MISSING -- the damn rain gauge is, in fact, broken. (I confirmed it is broken in an email with the MFL NWSFO Warning Coordinator.)
OK, I'm going to wrap up this entry. My plan for this afternoon is to walk down to the South Pointe area (and check if Monty's is open).
I wouldn't ordinarily do this during the workweek -- all the more so in that I'm flat broke until I get paid on Friday. (How I manage to earn almost $100,000 a year, have no dependents, live in a state with no state tax, and still invariably end up broke several days before I get paid is a mystery to me.)
My next planned entry will be in two or three days.
Unless it really warrants it, I'm not going to do any "hurricane aftermath" entries since they're all the same. This includes all attempted score-settling and extraction of vengeance by The Left on the assumption that hurricanes are the punishments meted out by their mentally deranged Golden Calf deities. Frickin' fed up with it.