Saturday, December 12, 2020

A Dystopian D.C. December Weather Update: A Chance of a Now-Infrequent Significant Snowfall, Fog, and Ongoing Caustic Political Dust Storms

Updated at 12:54 p.m. 12/13/2020 and 2:22 a.m. 12/17/2020: See below.


Apologies for lack of entries.

I had a lot of work to do this week as part of a monthly task that is now over. Next week should allow for more blogging time.

As it is, I have three in draft form including a political-themed one in the time of WOKE Cultism and Branch Covidianism, the two of which heavily overlap and the latter of which is facilitating massive and sustained, totalitarian-minded Democrat power grabs.


Turning to the weather, I should note that both the always-massively inconsistent GFS ("American") and the always-unreliable GEM / CMC (Canadian) models are advertising a snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic region, specifically, the D.C. to New York City "Acela" corridor on Wednesday, Dec 16th (which is my mom's birthday). The 10-1 ratio amounts have been in the 8 to 12 inch range in the D.C. area but with a sharp rain/snow line cuoff.


Below are three of the most recent GFS operational model run outs (0Z, 6Z, and 12Z today) and the 12Z Canadian model outputs including for NECONUS snowfall totals as graphically outputted by the Tropical Tidbits site. (To clarify, neither NCEP nor CMC graphically output their respective long-range weather models in this fashion.)

GFS 12Z 12 Dec 2020 MSLP, 6-hour averaged precip and p-type, and 1000-mb to 500-mb thicknesses in DAM looped in 3-hour steps between hour 96 and hour 150 ending 18Z 18 Dec 2020 for the NECONUS as graphically outputted on the Tropical Tidbits site.

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You'll note that the GFS (above) and GEM / CMC (below) are remarkably consistent for this storm out at day 4 - 5. But you'll also note (as ever) how close is the rain/snow line to the Metro D.C. area.

GEM / CMC 12Z 12 Dec 2020 MSLP, 6-hour averaged precip and p-type, and 1000-mb to 500-mb thicknesses in DAM looped in 3-hour steps between hour 96 and hour 150 ending 18Z 18 Dec 2020 for the NECONUS as graphically outputted on the Tropical Tidbits site.

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GFS 0Z 12 Dec 2020 snowfall total NECONUS through hour 162 ending 18Z 18 Dec 2020 assuming 10-1 ratio and as graphically outputted on the Tropical Tidbits site.

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GFS 6Z 12 Dec 2020 snowfall total NECONUS through hour 156 ending 18Z 18 Dec 2020 assuming 10-1 ratio and as graphically outputted on the Tropical Tidbits site.

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GFS 12Z 12 Dec 2020 snowfall total NECONUS through hour 150 ending 18Z 18 Dec 2020 assuming 10-1 ratio and as graphically outputted on the Tropical Tidbits site.

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GEM/CDC (Canadian model) 12Z 12 Dec 2020 snowfall total NECONUS through hour 150 ending 18Z 18 Dec 2020 assuming 10-1 ratio and as graphically outputted on the Tropical Tidbits site.

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I'll go way out on a limb here and say 1.2 inches at KDCA -- meanwhile, KORF manages to pick up 1.4 inches. For KIAD, let's say 5.4 inches and for KBWI, 3.8 inches. Keep in mind that 1.2 inches would put KDCA over its first inch for the year and in a single event -- which in the current climate "regime" is actually quite difficult to achieve.

The D.C. area climate in 2020 is basically what Charlotte or Atlanta's climate was in 1990.

UPDATED 2:22 a.m. 12/17/2020

OK, the weather event came and went and the snow portion was even more pathetic than I anticipated. Amounts included the following: KDCA: Trace; KBWI 1.6 inches; and KIAD 2.3 inches. So predictably sad. Daily precipitation amounts were as follows: KDCA: 1.11 inches; KBWI: 1.42 inches; and KIAD: 1.30 inches (daily record).

End of update.

Of note, it has been so long since there was any sort of winter storm watch in effect for the D.C. area (and, to be clear, at present there is not) that I actually forgot the watch's NWS color for that "product": Steel Blue. The winter storm warning color is hot pink (see image below).


Above: Portions of the NWS hazards product list with colors and ranked by priority; a winter storm warning is #26 and a winter storm watch is #103. There are 129 hazard products in all, see here.

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That weather event is still four days away -- and there is supposed to be a "wet" rain event on Monday maybe with some snow/mix in the northern and western exurbs, certainly not here in the District of Karenumbia, Fully Masked WOKEINGTON.

As for today, it's actually a rather mild day with a dull, broken overcast and diffuse sunshine. The noontime temp is 57°F with a southerly breeze. The high is forecasted to be about 61°F, which actually means 65°F, and if the Sun pops out in any meaningful way, 68°F.

Updated 12:54 p.m., 12/13/2020: The actual highs for Saturday, Dec 12, 2020 and departures from daily normal highs were as follows: 63°F (+15°F) KDCA, 64°F (+18°F), KBWI, and 65F (+18°F) KIAD. As for the would-be Wednesday snow event, it appears it will be sufficiently warm and mixed with rain, resulting in suppression of snow totals in the D.C. area into the range of my above prediction. GONG!!! WHA-WHA-WHAAA...!!


It was actually densely foggy around 7 a.m. this morning, at least by my apartment building. I'm not sure if there was a dense fog advisory in effect, or not. Wildly averse to any "weather" (that's part of the job description for that particular NWSFO), Sterling is loathe to keep a product in place for more than 10 minutes, and by the time I looked at the LWX page around 10 a.m., there was nothing.

OK, that's all I have to say for now.

For today, I have plans but I really don't feel like writing about it now. I just want to end this entry.

I will note that for the second time in five weeks, there is some horn honking -- like last time, mostly by aggressive bull-dike lesbians and sundry trans-liquefied non-binary she-males outside because of the Biden win, this time, the formality of the Electoral College meeting and vote.

It was far more aggressive when Big Media called the election on Nov 7, but this is D.C., and people behave like that here.

I am a bit concerned about the fact that there is a big Proud Boys / "Stop the Steal" rally near the White House today -- you should have heard them last night in the dark, still, cold, city white noise din-filled air as they were gathered on the National Mall near the Smithsonian (heavy police presence nearby) all jacked up and ready for a fight. Combining them with Democrat Party-stoked Antifa vermin and BLM street thugs is a dangerously combustible mix.

To clarify, I left work late and walked home between 930 and 1030 pm. Other than that, it was a nice walk at that hour because the number of Branch Covidian paranoiacs was much lower than during the day.


OK, that really is all for now. I'll try to post a blog entry tonight, but realistically, it probably won't be until late tomorrow or early Monday.

--Regulus

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