Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Mid-April Statistical and General Update on the COVID-19 Situation Mid-Pandemic; This Regulus Blog Turns 12

**Updated 9:56 p.m. April 17, 2020: See below.**

A man wearing a mask during the COVID-19 pandemic walks by the LOVE Sculpture in John F. Kennedy Plaza, Center City, Philadelphia, Pa., on a rainy day,
April 13, 2020

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As an update on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and resulting COVID-19 public health emergency, and it includes some news-related pictures that I found online.

Firefighters and healthcare workers in New York City gather for a picture during the COVID-19 pandemic,
April 12, 2020

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Focusing just on the United States on Tuesday, April 14th, 2020, unfortunately featured a new high on the number of fatalities nationally and in a number of states.

This was due to a sustained high-level of fatalities in New York (778, continuing its 700 to 800 per day range), a surge to a new high in New Jersey (362), and four other states, each with 100+ fatalities: Michigan (166), Louisiana (129), Massachusetts (113), and Pennsylvania (106).

This brings the total number of COVID-19 deaths to 26,047 and full recoveries to 38,820.

It raises the total number of known SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., COVID-19 cases) in the United States to 613,886.

These figures are as of 0314GMT April 15, 2020 (11:14 p.m. EDT April 14, 2020) on the Worldometers.info site.

COVID-19 stats table for the top 20 U.S. States in descending order of caseload for the period ending 
00 GMT 15 April 2020 (8 p.m. EDT 14 April 2020)

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Using the Worldometers.com aggregation site, the number of fatalities since my previous entry on this have been as follows:

April 12: 1,528 (a significant drop from the previous five days)
April 13: 1,538
April 14: 2,407 (easily surpassing the 2,035 set on April 10th)

Updated 9:56 p.m. April 17, 2020

I need to note that the addition of the 3,778 "probable" COVID-19 fatalities to New York's total dramatically increased the April 14th death toll, as reported on the Worldometers.com site. The revised totals for these three days plus the three days that follow (ending 00 GMT 18 April 2020) are as follows:

April 12: 1,528 (No change)

April 13: 1,535 (-3)

April 14: 6,185 (+3,778)

April 15: 2,618

April 16: 2,176

April 17: 2,535

As for new cases, they remain stuck in the 30,000+ to 32,000+ range.

It's unclear if the steady number of new cases is because those being tested are sick (that is, COVID-19 symptomatic) or if testing itself is expanding from its abysmal state.

End of Update

Time series of COVID-19 U.S. daily deaths
between 15 Feb - 14 April 2020

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To be clear, the Worldometers.info daily aggregation site runs from 00 GMT (UTC) to 00 GMT, or 8 p.m. EDT to 8 p.m. EDT the following day, which is different than the timeframes used by other aggregation / dashboard sites such as Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and the COVID-19 Tracking Project.

A firefighter gets a nasal swab diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 ("coronavirus") infection at Public Safety Headquarters, Jersey City, N.J., 
April 10, 2020

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The number of new cases in New York, though, was 7,468 -- an increase from Sunday and Monday (perhaps depressed by the Easter holiday) but down from the 10,000 or so cases recorded per day between April 7 - 10.

New York State Department of Health COVID-19 Tracker (bar chart) showing daily number of tests and positive results, April 7 - 13, 2020, inclusive.

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Keep in mind that most of these New York deaths are occurring in New York City and its immediate in-state suburbs including Long Island, while most of the New Jersey ones are within about 50 miles of New York City.

Here are the top 10 counties in New Jersey by positive cases and their death tolls so far:

Bergen: 10,426 - 550
Hudson: 8,242 - 277
Essex: 8,212 - 535
Union: 7,265 - 238
Passaic: 6,438 - 156
Middlesex: 6,313 - 216
Monmouth: 4,003 - 145
Ocean: 3,833 - 149
Morris: 3,424 - 192
Somerset: 1,911 - 91

Source: NJ Dept of Health COVID-19 Dashboard

A crazy man street performer known as the "Naked Cowboy" does this thing in nearly empty Times Square, 
New York City, April 13, 2020

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Of note, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has concluded that an additional 3,778 deaths should be added to the COVID-19 fatality as "probable" COVID-19 cases.

NYC COVID-19 confirmed and probable daily deaths, March 1 - April 12, 2020; source: New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene via NY Times

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These individuals passed away before they could be tested -- in places such as hospital emergency rooms, at home, or in nursing homes. This increased New York's overall death toll to over 10,000. What's more, as this New York Times article notes, far more people have died in New York City, on a per-capita basis, than in Italy — the hardest-hit country in Europe.

Nearly deserted Park Avenue in Midtown Manhattan, New York City during COVID-19 pandemic, April 10, 2020

The air quality sure is good these days ... and it goes beyond just the widespread economic shutdown due to the public health emergency.

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The American and District of Columbia flags flapping on a very windy day, Freedom Plaza, Washington, D.C., 
2:21 p.m., April 10, 2020

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Here in D.C. on April 14th, there were 105 new cases and a record number of fatalities, 15. This brings the total number of cases to 2,058 and the total number of deaths to 67. That's troubling to me given the extreme social distancing so many people have been practicing here in the District, a comparatively small jurisdiction, for the past month.

The D.C. flag outside the John A Wilson Building, Washington, D.C., 2:21 p.m., April 10, 2020

Not sure why the D.C. flag here was at half-staff.

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Oh, yes, Wyoming recorded its first death on April 13th -- making it the last of the 50 states to do so.

The Worldometer site includes other non-governmental entities such as the U.S. military and "international conveyances" (cruise ships), as well as a new one, the Navajo Nation, where 28 deaths and 813 cases are reported.

Time series of COVID-19 U.S. daily new cases (based upon positive test results) from 15 Feb - 14 April 2020

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In terms of overall number of U.S. daily new cases, it has remained relatively flat the past three days:

April 12: 27,421
April 13: 26,641
April 14: 26,945

California continues to have low counts -- 25,777 known cases and 789 deaths as of this writing -- despite its massive size, perhaps because of the quick efforts of Gov. Gavin Newsom.


As for the IHME COVID-19 Projections model, after last week's sharp falls, it has trended up a bit in its middle range of fatalities -- from 60,400 up to 68,841 with a range from 30,188 to 175,965 (see above image, slightly truncated on the left side to exclude February).

I'm going to leave this COVID-19 update at that -- and NOT get into any of the tentative plans for relaxing social distancing or the partial reopening of any presently closed parts of regular civil life such as schools, restaurants, gyms, etc.

The Oculus World Trade Center Transportation Hub in New York City during the COVID-19 outbreak, 
April 12, 2020

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I will say that the regional pacts made by West Coast and certain East Coast governors yesterday set off Trump into a 2-1/2 hour meltdown and silly propaganda fest worthy of Fox News and Breitbart.

Trump's malignant narcissist -- probably a diagnosable antisocial personality disorder -- led into him one of his now-daily shit-fests with the White House press corps and caused him to declare he has "total" authority to do whatever he wants -- including "ordering" the country "reopen" by fiat.


Outside of Trump cult-enthralled one-party Red States such as Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, this is all horseshit.

It's horseshit, or rather, it would be except there are so many ass-wipe fascist frat boy Federalist Society / Brett Kavanaugh types that have virally infected and colonized the federal judiciary thanks to the human vector of Mitch McConnell that, I suppose, anything is possible.

Globally, the number of known COVID-19 just clicked over 2 million with 126,764 reported deaths (that's certainly an undercount) and almost 484,597 recoveries as of 0510 GMT 15 April 2020.

Italy and Spain appear to be emerging gradually from their pandemic situations, but "normalcy" is a long way off. Ditto here.

COVID-19 stats table for the top 20 countries in descending order of caseload for the period ending 00 GMT (UTC) 15 April 2020 (8 p.m. EDT 14 April 2020)

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As for another story from this COVID-19 pandemic ...

Here is the Washington Post article about this (featuring Mr. Gordon): Cruise ship crews: Stuck at sea, paydays dwindling and searching for a way home.


Directly above is an image of a young man -- a cruise ship worker whose occupation includes that of cabaret dancer -- named Matthew Gordon aboard the MS Volendam, one of the multiple cruise ships that cannot find a port to dock and allow the remaining people onboard, specifically, the ship crew, to disembark.

MAXAR satellite image showing cruise ships stuck off the Miami coastline, March 27, 2020

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Clearly gay Mr. Gordon is from Augusta, Ga., and he's not that far from home -- but stuck on the ship for now over a month, presently in the waters off the Bahamas. Multiple ships are stuck off the South Florida coast.

Bar stools with covers indicating social distancing requirements and dinner onboard this MS Volendam de facto prison ship; images from Matthew Gordon.

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Perhaps they should all bum-rush fucking Fisher Island, home to the world's foremost celebrity billionaires and oligarchical trillionaires, all of whom were able to easily bribe "make a deal" to get all the COVID-19 testing equipment -- specifically, rapid blood test kits -- they and their servant staff could ever want or need.


Didn't Oprah (D - Dreamworld) once live there? Maybe she still does. Who knows with people like that. They live in a different reality than you or I. And I thought Rush the Vulgar Lying Pigboy (R - Cigar Chomping, Butt Munching) lived on Fisher Island, but apparently he's on "mainland" Florida.


I wonder if I were trapped as a prisoner on a ship like that -- eating a diet of fish heads and rice, as Gordon is -- with the Florida Atlantic coastline in sight if I would just try to jump overboard and swim to shore.

OK, that's all for now.

Oh, yes, today, April 15th, 2020 is the 12th birthday of my Regulus blog -- and entry 2,903. I estimate that I will reach entry 3,000 in August.

--Regulus

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