Saturday, January 19, 2019

Saturday Evening Post for January 19th, 2019: Some Weather Talk Plus Brief Update

**This entry was posted January 19th, 2019**

Stirling Falls, Milford Sound, Fiordland National Park, South Island, New Zealand

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Saturday night (well, actually wee hours Sunday morning by the time I posted this entry, but I adjusted the posting time to be for Saturday).

I'm home watching the MeTV Super Sci-Fi Saturday night and Sunday Red-Eye Sci-Fi lineup. This entry, however, is mostly dedicated to a weather update …

Weather update …

NWS high-resolution surface weather map for a portion of the eastern United States as of 3Z 20 Jan 2019

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It's raining outside as a large, complex low pressure system with two cold fronts -- the second one of which is a bona fide Arctic blast -- pushing across the central Appalachians. (See 3Z 20 Jan 2019 surface weather map image directly above.)

NWS/WPC/NDFD U.S. surface weather map forecast valid 6Z 20 Jan 2019 showing isobars, fronts, and precipitation type and intensity.

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The main low is presently over eastern Kentucky and is forecasted to track to the northeast -- dragging a warm front up the Eastern Seaboard and ensuring the coastal areas outside of New England see mostly rain. This includes, of course, the D.C. area where it is (as noted) raining right now.

Some radar imagery …

Sterling (LWX) NWS radar in standard base reflectivity looped 11:26 p.m. 19 Jan 2019 - 12:07 a.m. 20 Jan 2019

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Sterling (LWX) NWS radar in standard composite mode looped 11:20 p.m. 19 Jan 2019 - 12:01 a.m. 20 Jan 2019

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NECONUS quadrant composite radar mosaic looped 0348 - 0458 UTC 20 Jan 2019

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Across New England, however, heavy snow is in the forecast with winter storm warnings up for an unusually wide swath including nearly all of New York (except the New York City area and Long Island) and Massachusetts, and all of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Some current weather advisories info …

NWS U.S. weather advisories (without legend) for the eastern half of the United States, 0503 UTC (12:03 am EST) 20 Jan 2019

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Baltimore/Washington NWSFO weather advisories updated 12:08 a.m. EST Jan 20, 2019

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Philadelphia / Mt. Holly NWSFO weather advisories updated 12:28 a.m. EST Jan 20, 2019

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Snowfall totals in parts of southern New Hampshire could reach 20 to 24 inches -- not the biggest snowstorm ever for New England by any means but a heavy snow nonetheless.

NWS / NCEP NDFD NECONUS snowfall totals valid 12Z 18 Jan 2019 - 00Z 21 Jan 2019 as prettied up by WeatherBell.com

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Of note, the storm system is supposed to bring accumulating snowfall to the Boston area -- in the range of 3 to 8 inches, depending on location.

This will actually be the first significant snowfall for Boston this winter season. Oddly enough, the Boston area has missed out on virtually all snow this season with the city so far (prior to today) having only received 0.2" at KBOS including just 0.1" since Dec 1. By contrast, here in D.C. (KDCA) is at 12.7" for the season so far including 11.3" this month and Richmond (KRIC) at 13.0" -- thanks mostly (11.5") to that mid-November snowstorm.

Baltimore (KBWI) is at 9.2" for the season so far including 7.5" this month while Dulles Airport (KIAD) is at 15.4" for the season so far including 12.4" this month through today.

For its part, New York (KNYC) is at 6.9" for the season including just 0.5" this month through today. Meanwhile, Philadelphia (KPHI) is at 6.3" for the season including 2.7" since Dec 1st and 2.4" so far this month (i.e., 3.6" fell in November).

Also of note, Norfolk (KORF) has had 0.1" this winter season, so it and KBOS are at the same amount for climatological winter (i.e., since Dec 1st) -- something that, I suspect, almost never happens.

Boston / Norton NWSFO weather advisories updated 12:42 a.m. EST Jan 20, 2019

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Portland / Gray NWSFO weather advisories updated 12:42 a.m. EST Jan 20, 2019

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The blast of Arctic air will be quite a punch with temps plummeting tomorrow (Sunday) from around 50F at late morning to a forecasted low of 10F to 15F tomorrow night with wind chills in the -5F to -10F range. Monday is forecasted to have a high of only 20F in D.C. proper. However, the Arctic blast is short-lived with another low tracking up the Appalachians and bringing relative warmth (50F) and decent rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday.

Looking ahead for the next several weeks and owing to the fact that there has been a major hemispheric pattern change that is, in turn, associated with the mid-December sudden stratospheric warming and resulting disruption to the polar vortex, so there is a chance of more Arctic outbreaks into February.

By the way, why is it rightwingers go BATSHIT CRAZY whenever they hear the term "polar vortex"??

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As an update …

I did not get a chance to go to the gym today (Saturday) -- instead, basically sleeping all day in his small, dark apartment with the fan going.


I may go to the gym tomorrow (Sunday). Monday is the Martin Luther King federal holiday and I have the day off (and, thankfully, I'm not part of the now nearly one-month long partial federal shutdown that shows no sign of ending and is on the verge of getting really ugly).


I should note that tomorrow -- January 20, 2019 -- is PRECISELY the half way mark of this morally and ethically diseased Trump dystopia. Now that doesn't mean we are necessarily half way through the Trump presidency -- it could be shorter if he is removed from office (unlikely) or drops dead (a possibility) or longer if he is reelected (not at all out of the question no matter what he does).


Anyway, for the week ahead, I've got a lot of work to do -- including finishing up reports in that financial monitoring report series that I've been doing for the past few years and also attending a meeting (right at L'Enfant Plaza) on Thursday and Friday as a notetaker (and which requires me to get up quite early).


That being the case, I don't think I'll have more than two entries this week (in addition to my Jukebox Saturday Night posting that will immediately follow this entry).


OK, I'm going to sign off now. My next planned entry might not be until Tuesday night.

--Regulus

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