Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Major Hurricane Michael Eyes Florida Peninsula Landfall Later Today; Anticipated Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Winds

GOES 16 Southeast U.S. sector Geocolor -- true daytime color (visible light) and nighttime multispectral nighttime looped 1022 - 1222UTC Oct 10, 2018. This shows the terminator line sweeping westward -- and the image changing from IR to daytime mode.


So, we've got a monster and its Michael … Hurricane Michael.

From the National Hurricane Center at 7 am CDT (8 am EDT) with the format tweaked a bit for this blog presentation:


Summary as of 7am CDT / 1200 UTC
Location: 29.0N, 86.3W or 90 miles SW of Panama City, Florida
Max sustained winds: 145 mph
Motion: N (10 degrees) at 13 mph
Min central pressure: 933 mb (27.55 inches Hg)

GOES 16 Southeast U.S. sector Band 13 10.3 microns clean longwave IR looped 0927 - 12222 UTC Oct 10, 2018.

The resolution and quality of GOES 16 is awesome. This satellite and its instrumentation are suddenly invaluable.


I partially composed an entry last night, but it was late and I was tired and figured I would wait until later today (Wednesday). However, Michael has continued to intensity to what is now a solid category 4 hurricane even as it hones it on what looks like Panama City, Florida, or maybe a bit to the west if the due northerly motion continues.

Northwestern Florida (EVX) NWS radar in standard base reflectivity mode looped 6:01 - 6:39 am CDT Oct 10, 2018

The looped radar image above is from the Northwestern Florida (Tallahassee NWSFO) radar. It is actually at Eglin Air Force Base ("KEVX"). I'm almost certain this radar will go down later today. The same radar image as above but in composite mode:

Northwestern Florida (EVX) NWS radar in standard composite mode looped 6:01 - 6:39 am CDT Oct 10, 2018


This is somewhat to the west of all the model guidance and NHC track from last night. However, I can't show the track very well because the five-day infographic that NHC uses has the storm damn near to the British Isles by the end of that period, so all the resolution of where it will come ashore is lost.

Hurricane Michael NHC 5-day infographic and track, advisory 15a 7am CDT Oct 10, 2018


Michael is forecasted to turn to the northeast and east-northeast as it accelerates thanks to a deep middle latitude trough approaching the eastern United States, a trough that should FINALLY usher in a major pattern change that ends the relentless humidity and warmth across the eastern half of the country.

Radar, MSLP, and surface winds as of 0700 UTC 10 Oct 2018 for the eastern two-thirds of the Lower 48 US

I think this is from an initialized model simulation (unsure -- I got it from Cranky's link -- see below).


The D.C. area has been forecasted to be a bit north of the heaviest rainfall with maybe 1-inch in the District proper versus 3 to 6+ inches across parts of central and eastern Virginia.

NWS / NCEP / WPC quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for the Lower 48 United States for days 1 - 3, valid 0Z 10 Oct 2018 - 0Z 13 Oct 2018

This was from last night. I haven't checked for the latest update. The thinking would not have changed that much.


Here are a couple more weather advisory images from last night (part of my originally planned entry):

Tallahassee NWS (TAE) county warning area (CWA) advisories updated 12:18 am EDT Oct 10, 2018


NWS US weather advisories (without legend) updated 0420 UTC 10 Oct 2018


I'll have more to say about Michael a bit later. I recommend reviewing Cranky Weather Guy's latest update on Hurricane Michael -- in which he gives his reasoning for the storm's major intensification. There are also CWG entries on the topic and, of course, the National Hurricane Center's official information.

GOES 16 visible image first morning light showing the eye of Hurricane Michael about 100 miles from its Florida peninsula landfall, 0657 CDT Oct 10, 2018.


Updated 10:08 am 10/10/2018

Closeup of the eye of Hurricane Michael as seen from the Eglin AFB NWS radar (KEVX) at 9:35 am EDT Oct 10, 2018.

Michael is now moving NNE -- part of the anticipated turn to the NE and, eventually, ENE. Owing to the synoptic pattern discussed above, this is a hurricane that will tear through very quickly. The eye might pass directly over Tyndall AFB around 2 pm EDT.

A monster approaches: EVX NWS radar in standard composite mode looped 8:19 - 8:54 am CDT Oct 10, 2018.

You can clearly see the signature of mesovorticies rotating around the eyewall.

End of Update.


I'm going to sign off now and write more on this later.


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