Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Late Night Notes on Hurricane Florence and the Increasing Likelihood of a Characteristically Unsatisfying Outcome (Ending, As Usual, In an Eastern North Carolina Flooded Manure Lagoon)

Hurricane Florence combined and colorized infrared and water vapor satellite loop during a portion of Sept 11, 2018

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I suppose I should post an updated entry about Hurricane Florence tonight, presently (as of 11 p.m. EDT) centered 670 miles ESE of Cape Fear, N.C., with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and a central pressure of 946 mb (27.93 mb) and chugging along at 17mph to the WNW.

500-mb streamlines and overall height field for the eastern United States and western Atlantic Ocean, labeled, as forecasted on or about Sept 13, 2018

This image is taken from Cranky Weather Guy's Tuesday postings (see link below).

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The current trend is to bring a powerful category 4 tropical cyclone to just about the North Carolina coast around Cape Lookout and then have it virtually stop as a "banana-like" (i.e., geographically configured) buildings to the northeast, north, and northwest of it and cause the hurricane to just loll along the North Carolina / South Carolina coastline -- drifting relentlessly southwestward through Sunday while it steadily weakens.

Additional schematic images, labeled, from Cranky Weather Guy's site. 

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Yes, this scenario would still cause quite a bit of destructive winds and flooding along a broad swath of the North and South Carolina coastlines and coastal areas, especially between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach, and to a lesser extent the Charleston area.

The 12Z 9/11/2018 suite of models' tracks for Hurricane Florence (minus one set of Euro ensembles).

This is also from Cranky Weather Guy's posting.

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The weakening but characteristically incredibly wet tropical storm would then bring flooding rains across eastern South Carolina and eastern Georgia. Maybe even the Atlanta area might get in on the rain action.

NWS/NCEP/WPC total rainfall map for Hurricane Florence for the 168-hour period between 8 a.m. EDT September 11 and 8 a.m. EDT September 18, 2018.

This rainfall forecast map is certain to be dramatically altered -- with nearly all the rain pushed into the Carolinas.

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All in all, this is an unsatisfying and shitty but not at all unsurprising outcome.

Either these hurricanes are instantly shunted out to sea well east of here or else they get trapped and stalled in some stupid, awful area like eastern North Carolina to die or -- after a week of rain -- get shunted out to sea. The key feature is the same: Zilch here except "good, hot sunshine" in the subsidence zone with Sue "Snake Eyes" Palka all happy about "how lucky we are."

In fact, I kind of hate hurricane season around this area precisely for that reason.

It's never not a let down -- even when we manage to get some rain out of one. And, no, I'm not entirely sure what it is I want.

Anyway, you can read Cranky Weather Guy's postings on Tuesday here. Some of the images above are taken from that posting.

GOES-16 (a.k.a. GOES East) CONUS view, Band 9 - 6.9 ┬Ám - Mid-Level Water Vapor - IR, 0322 UTC 12 Sep 2018

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Whether any of the remnants of Florence get up into the Mid-Atlantic including here in the D.C. area, well, that's increasingly questionable and, basically, irrelevant. Besides, we've had plenty of rainfall here this summer.

I should note that this scenario is sort of a repeat of Hurricane Diana way back in 1984 -- which I actually recall while living in Glen Burnie. It was just hot and dry with a cirrus cloud shield almost overhead. I was only 14 years old and already on a path to embittered failure.

Path of Hurricane Diana, Sept. 1984

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Interestingly, this Capital Weather Gang entry from Tuesday featured a paragraph about Hurricane Diana including two images that I am reposting -- directly above and directly below.

Hurricane Diana rainfall total map, 9 - 15 September 1984

Needless to say, KDCA and KBWI received precisely ZERO.

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I may post another hurricane update, if warranted, but to be clear, but I'm not going to spend vast amounts of time on this hurricane and the minutiae of how it will move while stalling and lollygagging about over eastern North Carolina.

Flooded "poultry operations" in Duplin County, N.C., in the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, Oct 2016.

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I have no interest in writing about another goddamn flood on the goddamn Tar River and how the effectively wholly-unregulated chicken-or-pig-shit-filled "manure lagoons" of "East Carolina" have flooded over their embankments and into nearby tract house developments with and E-coli bacteria-fouling everything for miles. Oh, and throw in tens of thousands of dead chickens and pigs (at least put out of their misery of life in the pure hell of an American factory farm).

Drone footage of a rescue boat in a flooded neighborhood somewhere in Cumberland Co., N.C., Oct 2016

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Maybe the North Carolina legislature can gerrymander the districts so all the shit-and-carcass filled water only goes into "Democrat" areas. The state legislature is world-class expert at that.

Flooding somewhere (does it matter where?) in eastern North Carolina as a result of Hurricane Matthew, Oct 2016

Yeah, we know: #MAGA. You actually believe via a FOX NEWS ALERT the liquid diarrhea that Trump spewed out of his backside today about what an "tremendous success" was the response to the Hurricane Maria catastrophe in Puerto Rico, 3,000 dead, 6 months of no power, and all. Not to worry -- your GOP Senator and Reps will see you are well taken care of.

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GOES East colorized satellite image showing Hurricane Florence, 1722 UTC Sept 11, 2018

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As a miniscule update, I made it to the gym tonight and was able to do some very limited / specific weightlifting and a bit of swimming. I also initially spent about 52 minutes on the treadmill. I'll try again Thursday. I start physical therapy next week.

--Regulus

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