Thursday, October 1, 2015

Shortened Thursday Morning Post; Brief Update on Hurricane Joaquin

**This entry was posted Oct. 1, 2015.**


Sorry for the lack of updates last night. As I figured, I didn't have an opportunity to update the blog last night, nor can I do so this morning. I am deeply exhausted after the two day workshop, gym, lack of sleep, and then going out last night (with the usual ending -- I really just want to move out of the city to a quiet Bethesda or Silver Spring suburb).

As a weather update, now-Hurricane Joaquin is still taking aim at the mid-Atlantic coastline, although the NHC track now keeps it just off the Delmarva whereas yesterday, it was showing a direct, up-the-Chesapeake-Bay hit. It is a complicated story involving the interaction of an upper level trough over the Southeastern U.S., a blocking high over eastern Canada / the Maritime provinces, and the hurricane itself and the extent to which the hurricane is captured by the low.

In this way, there are elements of the Hurricane Sandy synoptic pattern in it -- except the trough is not nearly as strong.

The Capital Weather Gang has had a number of outstanding entries already on this.

There is also supposed to be an antecedent heavy rainfall event for the Baltimore / Washington area. A flood watch has already been raised. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are likely along the Atlantic coastline, but it's unclear what will be raised along the Chesapeake Bay (although it certainly won't be any badly confusing "hurricane force wind warnings" as was in Hurricane Sandy's case).

Note that right now, Joaquin is a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph and a central pressure of 942mb (27.82in Hg).

I intend to update the blog tonight after the gym. (Tonight will be a gym night.)

I actually need to go back to sleep briefly. I'm going to go into work around noon.

--Regulus

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