Thursday, February 26, 2015

This Thursday Morning and a Statistical Analysis of Boston's Phenomenal 30-Day Snow Total

The tower of the Fort Reno Pumping Station atop Fort Reno Park, Washington, D.C., Feb. 22, 2015.

This picture was taken by Erin Kelly and posted in this CWG entry. I wrote about Fort Reno including the adjacent "secret" PEF atop it in this entry.

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Sorry for the lack of an update last night or more regular entries. I was quite busy yesterday helping out at an all-day conference at the agency, and then went out to No. 9, where I stayed much too long and now I'm suffering this morning. Actually, I also have a sore throat that might be a harbinger of a cold. As it is, there is a 2 hour delay for the Federal Gov't owing to a light snowfall of 1 to 2 inches in the D.C. area, more to the south.

As for snow and speaking of CWG, here is a fascinating entry about just how statistically rare is the phenomenal amount of snow that the Boston area has endured this winter, the bulk of which fell in a six to seven week period. It focuses on the likelihood of 94.4 inches of snow in a 30-day period.

Univ. of Oklahoma meteorologist Sam Lillo concludes that it is a once-in-a-26,315 year event.

Statistical probability analysis of Boston snow totals for a 30-day period.

This is a distribution of a maximum 30-day snowfall for 1 million resampled winters at Boston Logan Airport (KBOS). The number of winters is on the vertical axis and the snow total is on the horizontal axis.

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To be clear, there has been a warm water anomaly off New England that is probably enhancing Boston's winter snowfall, so it is not a statistically random event.

A woman shovels snow on Joy Street in Boston during a blizzard on Feb. 15, 2015.

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For the winter season through yesterday, Logan Int'l Airport (KBOS) is at 101.8 inches -- nearing the 107.6 inch record set in the winter of 1995-96.

Chart snowing Boston's snowiest winters and how quickly the snow fell. It compares the current winter -- through February 23, 2015 -- with the all-time snowiest.

Two points: Boston is now at 101.8 inches and the all-time snowiest should be shown as 107.6 inches. Oh, this, this picture appeared in this CWG entry.

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OK, that's all for now. I'll try to update the blog tonight.

--Regulus

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