Monday, November 25, 2013

A Potential U.S. East Coast Double Nor'easter This Week (and Some Political Commentary)

Sunset as seen from my Hampton Courts apartment looking to the southwest down New Hampshire Avenue and across 16th St. and U Streets NW, Washington, D.C., 4:32PM Nov. 24, 2013 with the towers of Rosslyn (Arlington) in the distance (on the left side).


OK, so today was a strange sort of day. For starters, I didn't get out of bed until, oh, 4PM. I had a hangover from last night that sort of morphed into a migraine, and I took my last Imitrex (I need to refill the paltry 4 pill supply). The pill plus a banana and some ginger ale and chicken-and-rice soup seemed to help (I wish that Campbell's didn't put so much flippin' sodium / salt into its soup).

The support penguins at the new ice skating rink at Washington Harbour in Georgetown, Washington, D.C., 6:30PM Nov. 17, 2013. (This was last Sunday when Gary and I went there.)


I also watched an episode of Cannon on MeTV -- "Blood Money." I know that William Conrad was supposed to be this hard-edged detective in a 1970s Los Angeles world. But to me, he is unintentionally hilarious ...

... I mean, just look at him.


Anyway, I finally left the apartment on this cold and blustery day around 6PM and biked over to Nellie's, where I had a nice conversation with the bartender Cole. Thereafter, I biked via Vermont Avenue -- making a full bike revolution around Logan Circle -- to P Street and to Bua (the Thai restaurant). I had dinner at the bar. While the TV was tuned to the unwatchably stupid America's Funniest Home Videos, the volume was sufficiently low that it was not a problem).

New Hampshire Avenue at autumnal dusk near the Kennedy Center in the Foggy Bottom district, Washington, D.C., 4:54PM Nov. 17, 2013. (This was taken on the same trip down to the Kennedy Center and then over to Washington Harbour last Sunday.)


Finally, I made it to Larry's Lounge, where I met Gary and we looked at the weather models and other information. I also talked to Bob N. and had overall a very nice time -- which is quite a turn-around from how I felt even at 4PM.

The one support penguin with big eyes -- the rest seem to have no eyes (see above image) -- at the new ice skating rink at Washington Harbour, Washington, D.C., 6:31PM Nov. 17, 2013.


Right now as I write this (but not by the time I post this entry), I am home now watching reruns of The Golden Girls on TV Land. The Hallmark Channel is in pure Christmas holiday mode until early January, so no GG there to be watched.

I'm going to the gym tomorrow (Monday). Today was a waste of a day including eating and drinking a fair amount. After tomorrow, I will be on a 4-day gym hiatus this Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week.

OK, turning to the weather ...

Today was a cold day with highs of 32F at KBWI and KIAD and 34F at KDCA following overnight lows of 23F (KIAD), 24F (KBWI), and 26F (KDCA).

In addition, dew point temps were as low as 3F (KBWI), 0F (KDCA), and -2F (KIAD).

All of this is unusual for late November -- in the range of 16F to 20F below normal for the daily averages at the three regional airport climate stations.

Secondly, and more importantly, there is a complex double-barreled nor'easter forecasted to move up the U.S. eastern seaboard in the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame with a thermal ribbon potentially setting up right along the coast (rather than over the Appalachians).

The 0Z 11/25/2013 GFS model showing the 6-hr precip., surface pressure, and 850mb temps valid at hour 63 / 15Z (10AM EST) Nov. 27,2013. This is showing the double-barreled low-pressure system in a highly meridionally elongated pattern.


The 0Z 11/25/2013 GFS model showing the 500mb - 1000mb thicknesses and 6-hour precipitation valid at hour 69 / 21Z (4PM EST) Nov. 27, 2013.

For the Baltimore / Washington area, this would be a moderate-to-heavy rainfall turning to snow.


Precip amounts (liquid equivalent) shown by the 0Z 11/25/2013 GFS and NAM runs are 2.5 to 4".

More to the point, it shows a mixed precipitation turning to (heavy) rain followed by a return to (potentially accumulating) snow even in the D.C. area.

Left: 0Z 11/25/2013 NAM valid at hour 66 / 18Z 11/27/2013 showing 6-hr precip., surface pressure, and 850mb temps. The
"thermal ribbon" sets up right along the East Coast.

As for that thermal ribbon ...

The NAM 0Z 11/25/2013 run showing surface temperatures (in Celsius), surface winds (in knots), and 925mb thicknesses, valid at hour 66 / 18Z (1PM EST) Nov. 27, 2013. This is an amazing thermal gradient across the mid-Atlantic -- approximately 12C (22F) just meridionally across New Jersey alone. The purple line is the 0C line at the surface, so that is more or less the rain/snow line at this point.


OK, that's all for now. I'll have more to say on the storm event in subsequent entries.

Oh, and also, just because ...

Here is Paul Krugman's Monday 11/25/2013 (print edition) New York Times op-ed on how Obamacare -- it's awful technical rollout notwithstanding -- can actually work in a place as massive as California. Sometimes I think that Obama himself is a GOP mole in terms of "the politics" of a situation. Count on him to lead you to a very bad place politically even if the policy prescription is semi-decent. The part about John Boehner "signing up" is pretty funny.

What we really need is the great legal scholar Benjamin Wittes (pictured above) AND Sebastian Mallaby to tell us all the "bipartisan nuances" that exist among the "the Washington Consensus" crowd on all othe "hard choices" that the working poor need to make. And to paraphrase Glenn Greenwald, he can do this while seated at this or that Brookings panel with his name tag and a pitcher of water in front of him.

And this should happen all while "Uncle" Fred Hiatt and Ruth "Mother" Marcus explain the need for "comprehensive entitlement reform" that jacks up the Medicare age to 74 for janitors and Walmart workers while "adjusting" Social Security for the bottom 60 percent of the income distribution that overwhelmingly rely on it -- all to go into defined contribution 401k plans the sky-trillion dollar casino run by Wall Street crooks.

Speaking of this topic and Paul Krugman, here is his Friday op-ed on the need to EXPAND Social Security rather than destroy it.

Above: A chart that Sallie Quinn and her "Washington Consensus" Georgetown dinner party guests never actually see, much less even could comprehend. Imagine this chart in the print edition of The Washington Post??

Say, where IS the Great and Powerful Martha "M.J." McAteer with her awesome journalistic "gate-keeping" abilities??

Oh, for the pre-blogging 1980s and '90s when it was so much easier to keep out non-Establishment-approved "voices" from the "paper of record."

Oh, there she is.

OK, that's enough political commentary.

By the way, Wall-P wanted to interject itself in this entry but as editor-in-chief and publisher, I nixed that idea.

OH, NO! Here comes Wall-P anyway!

"Eh. Eh. Ehehehe. I've petitioned the judge for injunctive relief based on the tortious infraction that undermined shareholder value and my cash flow in the third quarter --"

Oh, God, Would you just go away, Wall-P, you little robotic corporate stooge for the over-class.

Sorry about that folks. I intend this to be a Wall-P free zone.

OK, that's all for now.


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