Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Political Ebb Tide (Reposted)

OK, I'm taking the easy way here and simply reposting nearly all of what I wrote on my Arcturus blog -- since I actually intended to post that here anyway -- but slightly edited.

Morning sky above L'Enfant Plaza, Washington, D.C., 9:13AM, Nov. 3, 2010.

This was the second saved picture I took with my new cellphone -- which I got replaced yesterday after the old one flipped out on me, literally, with the front image / text inverted in a bizarre way.

Yes, I was running late for work.

#######

Some thoughts on the election ...

First off, I voted for a write-in candidate for Mayor of the District of Columbia in the election as a write in candidate. I won't say who but you can look over on my Arcturus blog if you like.

There was no way I was going to vote for Vincent C. Gray for mayor.

Concerning the local election, the unofficial results in all their glory are here. Don't forget to click on the tabs at the top of the table to go to the different subpages. In the end, nearly 23% of the voters wrote in someone.

As for D.C. Delegate, in the end, I voted for the Green candidate with the odd name, Rick Tingling-Clemmons.

I was going to vote for "Queen Noble" of the H.E.R.O.S.H.E.R.O. (!) party -- and it looks like she got 719 votes -- but I decided on a write in.

I simply could not vote for Eleanor Holmes Norton (yes, she won reelection easily) because of her decision to pass up a voting position in Congress over the stupid and irrelevant gun issue.

And, of course, Tommy "Bag Tax" Wells easily won reelection.

Interestingly, or maybe depressingly, turnout was 27.8% -- nearly 12 points lower than the average national turnout rate for a midterm election of 40%.

My hunch is that this election's turnout was closer to 42% (comparable to 1994 to which it was similar).

Presidential elections tend to have 55% turnout. The overall total increases because of population growth -- which is why the idiot media always scream "RECORD TURNOUT!" -- but the percentages fluctuate very little.

Each 1 percentage point equals about 1.3 million registered voters.

As for the national election, the bad news is having to look at the mocking, vulgar and fundamentally non-serious John Boehner -- the orange faced farce to the huge headed Newt Gingrich tragedy.

Ha ha. The button on her garter belt says "Holier Than Thou" -- juxtaposed with the picture of the Virgin Mary on the wall and the sign that says "Voyeur: Special Rates for Republicans."

Also, there is a decent chance of a Government shutdown by April when the Treasury hits up against its borrowing limit and the Teabagging crazies in the House force the issue by refusing to act.

This will certainly effect me personally. It will be like 1995 again -- except Obama will cave in.

As for Rand Paul (R - Dr. Killpatient), he proves there is nothing worse than a bullying GOP sore winner.

Electoral map of House wins as of Nov. 3, 2010 with 11 races undecided. Don't be too impressed by all that red -- those are geographically giant districts in the middle of the country because the population is so sparse. (And that 435 number set in 1911 REALLY needs to be upped to at least 650, maybe 800.)

True, a bunch of crazies just came to power.

But on the bright side, it overlooked by all the pundits who reflectively blame progressives for everything: 26 of the 61 seats they lost (so far -- 11 races are still undecided) were those shitty corporatist Blue Dogs.

Getting rid of them was a good thing.

For the record, the worst Democratic defeat in modern times was the 72 seat loss in 1938 and the Repubs picked up 81 seats, as they also picked up some minor third party seats. But the Dems STILL held onto their majority -- reduced from 334 to 262 -- as it so huge was it from 1930, 1932, 1934, and 1936 when they picked up a combined 170 seats over those four elections.

Electoral map of the 37 Senate races from 2010 with two states -- Washington and Alaska -- as yet undecided. (New York had two races.)

The outcome yesterday could have been worse, esp. on the Senate side.

But it's still a disaster and Obama is naturally drawing all the wrong conclusions and is promising endless cave-ins and retreats and not getting it.

In fact, he's probably pleased in some weird way.

What a disappointment he turned out to be. As Paul Krugman said, he'll keep compromising himself right out of his job on Jan. 20, 2013.

Here are a few good articles / commentaries that I enjoyed:

New York Times columnist Ross Douthat on the question Was it Worth It? That is, was it worth it for the 111th Congress Dems to try to do so much? His surprising conclusion (he tends to be conservative): so far, yes, it more or less was.

The next Ross Douthat piece Does America Need a Majority? is one in which he ponders whether the increasing rapidity with which the parties are ping-ponging back and forth is bad for getting any major legislative accomplishments.

The always apoplectic (and always gay) Glenn Greenwald on Pundit sloth: Blaming the left. My favorite part is where he calls out that ass-hat former Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, the quintessential corporate whoring "New Democrat."

And lastly, a piece from my favorite present day political philosopher and author, Michael Lind: Why center-left parties are collapsing.

I've mentioned Lind before and actually met at the Corcoran Street Safeway (he works and perhaps lives in the Dupont area). He writes a column for Salon. In the above piece, he argues that what's killing the Democrats -- and social democratic parties in Europe -- is their embrace of corporate "centrist" bankers and professionals at the expense of their working class base.

My favorite line (and remember I am a technical writer on energy efficiency and renewable energy matters who studied climate change in meteorology grad school and as a public policy issue in public policy grad school):

"Having given up traditional social democratic economics for a watered-down version of libertarian conservatism, the Third Way social democrats in Europe, like the Clinton and Obama Democrats in the U.S., sought to replace the traditional bread-and-butter concerns of working-class voters with idealistic campaigns about multiculturalism, climate change and obesity that appealed to more affluent, college-educated voters...

In the U.S., as in Europe, the right is divided between a pro-business right promoting policies of austerity and a populist, nativist right energized by opposition to immigration and multiculturalism, particularly where Muslims are involved."

Anyway, AT LEAST IT'S OVER ... for now. I don't have to hear any more frickin' polls about GOP SURGING! DEMS IN DISARRAY! Or ANYTHING from Nate Silver's 538 operation that sucks the life force out of everything within 20 light years of it.

I guess all tides ebb and flow...

#######

Speaking of ebbing and flowing, here is a YouTube link of Frank Chacksfield version of Ebb Tide


I'm guessing the footage is from a seaside location in South Korea (based on the screen name of the person who uploaded it). If so, that would make that body of water the Sea of Japan or, if on the west side, the Yellow Sea.

The part between 1:40 to 2:05 is my favorite.

#######

Oh, yes ...

... it looks like we should get a decent sized rain event / nor'easter tomorrow into early Friday. This is the 18Z GFS run from today valid for hour 24 showing mean sea level pressure, 850mb temps and 6-hr interval precip.

The earlier 12Z run of this and the NAM was actually wetter.


There is a big blocking high over Greenland -- indicating a continuation of the frequent negative NAO / negative AO pattern that featured so prominently in last winter's snowy weather pattern for our area.

I think I will simply repost this entry on my Regulus blog since I ended up writing most of what I wanted to say there over here first.

Trees on an open meadow in Scotland.

#######

And with that I shall end this entry. My next planned update will be later this week.

--Regulus

1 comment:

krzysztof said...

I voted for a write-in candidate for Mayor of the District of Columbia

I checked, I know. OMG, really? I thought you were going to vote for Gary