Friday, July 31, 2020

Weather Update at July's End: A Mid-Summer Night Quasi-Stationary Boundary's Impulses, Odd Clouds, and Briefly Stormy Evening -- Recap

Stormy - chaotic sky above the National Mall, Washington, D.C., 7:42 p.m., July 30, 2020

*******

The weather this Thursday was somewhat unusual for High Summer and worth noting in a non-shrieking media panic porn Covid-dick-teen and non-WOKE Cultural Revolution-themed entry.

NWS high resolution surface weather map for a portion of the eastern and central CONUS, 15Z 30 July 2020

*******

For starters, there was an elongated east-west quasi-stationary boundary earlier this afternoon extending from the Metro Baltimore and Washington areas all the way back to Kansas City and impulses were riding along it, at least one of which was originally associated with Tropical Storm Hannah last week. The boundary itself basically represents the periphery of an elongated lobe of the summertime semi-permanent Bermuda - Azores subtropical high.

NWS high resolution surface weather map for a portion of the eastern and central CONUS, 03Z 31 July 2020

Note that the boundary -- 12 hours later -- is still in place except for some back-and-forth undulation.

*******

What was interesting is that there was a very strong moisture (precipitable water) gradient across the region with a big slug of moisture over the Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians. Rainfall totals across those areas was in the 0.75 to 2.5 inch range.

Chaotic stormy sky as seen from Independence Ave near 12th St SW, Washington, D.C., 7:38 p.m., July 30, 2020

I walked from my office at L'Enfant Plaza this evening across the Mall and over to Joe's Restaurant, where I was able to get a high-top table by the bar. I had a very time there -- my first visit there since all the Covid crap started. I then walked home by quarter to ten tonight.

*******

Stormy evening as seen from the corner of the National Museum of African American History and Culture ("NMAAH&C"), Washington, D.C., 7:48 p.m., July 30, 2020

*******

This precipitation came careening into the D.C. area in the 7 to 8 p.m. timeframe. It turned what had been a hot, moderately humid, but "dry" day with intense end-of-July sunshine into a windy, rain squally evening. There wasn't much lightning / thunder, though.

In this area, rainfall totals weren't especially impressive and included the following through the end of the day (i.e., midnight Friday, July 31st):

KDCA: 0.15"
KBWI: 0.08"
KIAD: 0.20"
KNAK: Missing
KDMH: Missing / offline

However, the NWS put in a flash flood watch through 6 p.m. EDT Friday for additional possible heavy rainfall.

Sterling (LWX) county warning area (CWA) map with weather advisories, updated 3:00 a.m. EDT, July 31, 2020

*******

What was interesting, or so it seemed to me, was that the west-to-east trajectory of the weather system and rapidly varying atmospheric moisture content created unusual cloud formations and convection that by U.S. East Coast mid-summer standards was high base.

Nighttime intersection, New Hampshire Ave and N Street NW, Washington, D.C., 9:35 p.m., July 30, 2020

*******

Below is part of the Sterling (LWX) area forecast discussion from earlier tonight (10:27 p.m. EDT) interspersed with some weather-related imagery.

A weak boundary will remain stalled over the area through Friday. Waves of low pressure will track along the boundary passing through our area during this time. The boundary will shift to the north for Saturday and tropical moisture may impact the area for the early portion of next week. Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the Atlantic Ocean. Refer to the National Hurricane Center forecasts for the latest information regarding Isaias.

Great Lakes Sector base reflectivity radar mosaic, looped 1738 - 1848 UTC 30 July 2020

*******

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM/... A large, strung out area of middle- level spin (vorticity) and an upper-level jet streak associated with an approaching shortwave trough riding along a stalled surface front continue igniting showers and thunderstorms over the area as of mid evening. The first wave has produced a local minimum in instability along the crest of the Allegheny Front eastward to near I-95. Instability will increase overnight, however, given strong moisture advection in the lower levels.

NWS Charleston (RLX) NWS radar in standard composite mode, looped 2:24 p.m. - 3:04 p.m. EDT, July 30, 2020

*******

Enough guidance is on-board for scattered areas of heavy rainfall across the CWA to suggest a flash flood watch is necessary. Thus, have spread one eastward from the RLX watch to include the metro. It is noted that some areas are pretty dry at present, so a heavy rainfall may be more absorbed than run off.

NWS NDFD surface weather map forecast with p-type and likelihood for Lower 48 CONUS looped in six hour steps, 00Z 31 July to 00Z 02 August 2020

*******

However, dry vegetation and hard ground could actually increase run-off in some locales, so its not necessarily off the table in these areas, either. Given uncertainty and the fact the event is pretty much on top of us now, felt it was necessary. Confidence is not as high as preferred, however.

NWS 72-hour quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) through 00Z 03 August 2020

*******

The overall pattern will remain largely unchanged through the first half of the weekend. Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will likely result, though specific timing and placement remains somewhat uncertain. Severe weather from gusty winds seems a little less likely Friday due to cloud cover and the boundary likely nudging southward (keeping the best instability just outside of our area), but any subtle shift given the stronger mid/upper level flow could result in some strong to severe storms.

Great Lakes Sector base reflectivity radar mosaic, looped 0438 - 0548 UTC 31 July 2020

*******

As the front returns slowly northward Saturday, instability will increase, which may lend to a higher threat for at least isolated strong storms. The flooding threat will also gradually increase at least in a general sense as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms saturate the region.

NE CONUS base reflectivity radar mosaic, looped
0448 - 0558 UTC 31 July 2020

*******

Guidance continues to show an active pattern through the first half of next week. A H5 trough will continue to deepen over the Mississippi Valley as it becomes wedged by high pressure over the southwestern CONUS and a strengthening Bermuda High offshore.

Sterling (LWX) NWS radar in standard composite mode looped 11:12 p.m. - 11:52 p.m. EDT July 30, 2020

*******

This AFD doesn't get into any potential impacts of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Isaias. It seems as though the system will move up / just off the Southeastern U.S. coast, clipping the OBX and Mid-Atlantic shore. Depending on how the situation evolves, I might pay a lot of attention to this situation -- or just forget about it.

NHC information and 5-day forecast track with uncertainty cone for Tropical Storm Isaias, Advisory 11, issued 11 p.m. EDT 30 July 2020

*******

OK, I'm going to wrap up this entry. Just fyi, I composed most of this in the 1 a.m. - 3 a.m. timeframe, but did not complete and post it until early afternoon Friday. However, I am putting a 3:30 a.m. timestamp on it.

Shrubbery illuminated by lights, exterior, The Fairfax at Embassy Row hotel, Washington, D.C.,
9:41 p.m., July 30, 2020

*******

OK, that's all for now. My intention is to post a new entry on Friday night -- and, again, my intention is to have a non-shrieking media panic porn Covid-dick-teen and non-WOKE Cultural Revolution-themed entry.

--Regulus

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Some High Summer Low Thoughts in a Deranged and Miserable American Time Interspersed with Images of Frigid, Rugged, Powerful Beauty at the Far Southern End of the World

A ginormous iceberg in the frigid South Atlantic Ocean waters surrounding South Georgia Island

Sorry for the watermark in the image. Nothing I can do about that. This picture and the ones below are meant to be a counterpoint to the heat and humidity of the current end-of-July / start-of-August High Summer period.

Kayakers circumnavigating South Georgia Island

How do people live like this? 99.999% of the rest of humanity -- myself included, I suppose -- just muck around in miserable shit in lives of worthless desperation, "obesity-sheltering-in-place" while getting even more miserable, and then die.

*******

Drygalski Fjord, South Georgia Island

Yes, you live on a planet with this sort of natural features and scenery.

*******

Another hot, humid, excessively sunny High Summer day in this AMOKE time of WOKE madness, civil unrest by mentally deranged Antifa Millennials and trans-whatever Gen Z'ers, and white hot Covid-19 media panic porn hysterics, the latter of which shows no sign of ending.

Half Moon Island, South Shetland Islands, off the Antarctic Peninsula

*******

Honestly, it's starting to appears as if EVERY death is being coded as "Covid-19" no matter what and for whatever reasons of attention, financial benefit, or just general panic porn. On that last point, it's no stretch to say that a sizable fraction of the country itself -- led by the goddamn wrinkled and crinkled up Baby Boomers -- is in a diseased mental state that is convinced of some dire threat posed to its existence.

Telephoto view of Half Moon Island, October 2006

*******

Even deeper, I think the United States of America is a psychically broken country that has a self-loathing death wish of some sort, especially the part that hijacked the culture and has created a sort of Reign of WOKE Terror this year.


About the role of the degenerate commercial media industrial complex, I give you this tweet by Alex Berenson that includes part of a letter he received from another "Blue Check" media colleague. (Click on the images and then scroll through with the sidebar arrows.)


Back to the weather, it's 91F at the noon hour with a 67F dewpoint at KDCA with virtually no clouds and only a touch of summery haze. Yes, obviously, it can be significantly worse but it is my sensory view that this particular combination of temperature and dewpoint with total sunshine feels the worse.


Of note, the observation indicates it is "cloudy," which makes no fucking sense at all because it is completely clear, as the view from my apartment a short while ago shows (see image directly above).

But that's a common bug of the ASOS network and because the NWS sucks. But they suck like everything else in this country.

KDCA observation table, 5.a.m. to noon EDT July 30, 2020

KDCA's hourly observations always post 8 minutes before the top of the hour. Likewise for KIAD for KBWI, it is 6 minutes before the top of the hour.

*******

There is a good chance (60 pop) of showers and thunderstorms this evening, and the pattern looks to be more favorable for such diurnal chances the next three to five days. Also, a tropical storm -- Isaias -- has formed very close to Hispaniola, which is probably the most UNFAVORABLE spot for a tropical cyclone to be given the truly mountainous terrain on that giant island.

GOES 16 ("GOES East") Caribbean Sector - GeoColor image, 1600UTC (12:00 p.m. AST / 12:00 p.m. EDT),

*******

While the NHC track takes the system -- as no more than a Tropical Storm -- just off the U.S. East Coast, it does that usual thing where some mid-latitude trough or other weather feature makes it turn on a dime once it gets to the NC OBX and rocket across the Atlantic Ocean. That being the case, I am not going to spend much time concerned about it.

As it is, I don't want any dire weather along the Florida Atlantic coastline since my trip to see my dad is upcoming in about two weeks.

NHC current information and 5-day forecast track with uncertainty cone for Tropical Storm Isaias, Advisory 9, issued 11 a.m. AST 30 July 2020

*******

OK, that's all for now. My plan is to write another entry later tonight -- but a non-Covid-dick-teen panic porn and social unrest related one.

Shady spot, The Ellipse, Washington, D.C., 1:33 p.m.,
July 29, 2020

*******

Oh, yes, as I follow up to what I wrote in this entry, I am using another computer (my smaller but well-functioning work one, which I now tote daily back and forth). It will take a long time to get my picture files to anywhere near what they were on my previous computer.

Picture of the little one's resting spot, July 3, 2020

*******

Another view of South Georgia Island's powerfully rugged, frigid beauty

(Unsure if the seagull was really in the picture or it is a composite image of some sort. No matter.)

*******

--Regulus

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Yes, It's Alive: Malevolent Media, Ageing Baby Boomer Covid-19 Spasmosis; Millennial Mind Hive WOKE Madness; and Gen Z Transgendered Quantum Foam Reality -OR- 2020, Unscrewed


OK, this entry is, unfortunately, once again about the Covid-19 nightmare dystopia that is a sort of Dr. Henry "IT'S ALIVE!!" Frankenstein's monster. That would be a hybrid malevolent human creation in the late Trump era consisting of shrieking, indeed, mind-numbing Covid-19 media panic porn and virulently WOKE civil unrest spasmosis (is that a word??).


I've said it before but it bears repeating: It's hard to overstate the toxic malevolence of the American commercial media-entertainment complex. That being the case, the ratio to political shock troop-minded mind control and general horseshit to a virus of moderate severity for very specific and vulnerable subsets of the population continues to increase exponentially.


As I've previously mentioned in other entries over the past few months, living here in D.C. is the abso-fucking-lutely worst with the social media bio-fusion-based Millennial Mind Hive that has created its Frankenstein abomination of WOKE Maoist Cultural Revolution and Covid-19 panic porn.


Ironically, even here in D.C. -- a city forever locked in its bubble universe of 24 to 32 year old youth, no matter the time --one has to take care to avoid the handful of demented oldsters that you occasionally see here. You have to avoid them as much as you naturally avoid those deranged female Millennials who see "violence" even walking past them because the oldsters are so crazy that they might shoot pepper spray at you if you get close to them.


Alex Berenson -- whose twitter feed is must read -- called out that Andy Slavitt's "Team Apocalypse" lunacy about how we need to shut down society to include all interstate commerce for AT LEAST six weeks for a respiratory disease that for 90+ percent of the population is NO WORSE than seasonal influenza, and for the very young, less lethal.

Honestly, I don't know if Andy "Face Burqa" Slavitt is dumb enough to believe that such a physically destructive extended American society-wide self-quarantine would seriously "succeed" in the highly problematic goal of "stopping" a moderately severe respiratory virus.

More urgently, I do not know if Andy Slavitt is so stupid as to not to realize that such a wildly destructive and flamboyantly unconstitutional shutdown in a fractured country of 330 million -- as opposed to some small New Zealand town -- would immediately lead to a collapse of food production, halting of supply chains, mass panic, and society-wide mayhem.

As Alex Berenson and others have emphatically said: Lockdowns kill. And his outright violent version would, of course, merely fan the ongoing civil unrest, especially since, presumably, the military would be "quarantined" with the police as well.

And Slavitt wants all this EVEN AS the Covid-19 hospitalization caseload is rapidly dropping in Sunbelt areas such as the Greater Houston area -- places that the whore-media two weeks ago was rabidly demanding be "shutdown" until further notice.

No, I didn't bother to read Andy "Panic Porn" Slavitt's "24/" this and "19/" that twitter ejecta about how this dystopian sci-fi movie would actually work.

Suffice it say, behind his mask, his ideas are a clear and present danger to society. But his insanity is of course, why Anderson Cooper and Don Lemon can't get enough of him in the late Trump era -- precisely because it is a way of getting rid of Trump while also amassing more Illiberal Left power.


It's worth pondering if Andy Slavitt is like all those violent riot-stoking, mayhem-loving Democratic pols in this the likely end stage of the Trump era -- namely, carve out a massive exception for whatever terrorization and violence that Antifa and BLM want to engage in. Look at the civil war in the lost cities of Portland and Seattle.


Sensing electoral gain to be had and because they are genuinely frightened of Antifa monsters, Dem politicians -- to include all those pussy/wussy Big Blue City mayors who can't control anything in their own jurisdictions -- don't dare try to stop any Antifa / BLM mass gatherings.


These mayors keep these drive-a-truck-through "carve outs" on the supposed grounds that "WOKENESS" and Maoist Cultural Revolution simply possesses too great an intrinsic "moral clarity" that "cannot be denied" -- whether or not a pandemic, Ebola-like or not, is raging.


As for the actual danger posed to American society in 2020, namely, the nationwide skyrocketing urban violet crime rates, as opposed to the ever-more-phony media pandemic one, this tweet yesterday from Alex Berenson summed it up most bracingly:


Let me restate that: The explosion in urban violent crime and resulting killings is likely to result in an INCREASE in the number of under 35 homicides in the U.S. in 2020 that EXCEEDS the total number of under 35 year old people who died of Covid-19 in 2020. Ponder the enormity of -- and bizarro-world reality embodied in -- that fact.


As it is, and as mentioned above, the weeks-long media-hystericized run up big run cases in mostly asymptomatic or just mildly symptomatic Covid-19 cases in the Southern and Western U.S. almost certainly has maxed out, and hospitalization usage is falling.


What's more, the ICU and ventilator usage never got near, much less exceeded, capacity -- and that's the case no matter the amount of shrieking yowling by Pro Publica, NPR, CNN, MSNBC, or the New York WOKE Times.


Having said that, once Senile Joe Biden's BIPOC VP is the actual Totalitarian Leader of the country, you can expect martial law declarations of endless shutdowns, forcible expropriation of wealth, seizure of all firearms, and shutdown of all media platforms that fail "WOKENESS" requirements.


At least that's their Ibram X. Kendi and Robin DiAngelo-approved plans. In point of fact, that would probably lead to hot civil war and dissolution of the country.


It's worth a mention about how Google -- which, yes, I know runs Blogger -- got wood about its news "we will be working from home until the year 3000" garbage. Yes, please stay borrowed, molelike, forever … except, I suppose, for occasional rioting and looting.


How did I end up in such a deranged reality in which we exist just to be miserable in a late stage empire undergoing a spasmodic collapse, swirling down its nihilistic vortex toward some cultural identity event horizon.

Finally, it goes without saying that I hate being an American Gen X'er. It's the worst spot to inhabit.

You're caught between on the one side, an ageing, unconscionably selfish Baby Boomers -- who along with the malevolent media are engaged in the ongoing Covid-19 wild spasmosis -- and on the other, the bio-tech fusion-driven Mind Hive of the Millennials and, to repeat, the transgendered fluid quantum foam reality of the Gen Z set.

God, yes, 2020 sucks. And it's just the start of a long, horrible decade.

OK, that's all for now. My next entry will be a day or two.

--Regulus