Saturday, September 24, 2016

Saturday Evening Post for September 24th, 2016: Sliding Into Fall and Toward Trumpocalypse

**This entry was posted September 24, 2016.**

Dawn breaks along the Amalfi coast of Italy by Positano, September 24, 2016.

Andrea sent this picture to me just after midnight my time. She and Imara are wrapping up their 3-week whirlwind tour of the Greek isles, Italy (including Rome), and Istanbul.

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Saturday night.

I had a good multi-part gym workout earlier today and now I'm home doing several loads of laundry (including bedding). For tonight, I am going to stop at Floriana and then go to my usual spot at the Old Bar at Old Ebbitt Grill and then perhaps Trade thereafter.

Alley off the 1400 block of W Street NW, Washington, D.C., 3:16PM September 24, 2016.

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Yesterday, I left work and walked back to Dupont owing to yet another bout of Metro mayhem, this one caused by a fire of some sort at Metro Center that bollixed up multiple lines. I walked to Annie's, where I met Fred and we had a nice time. Thereafter, we went to Floriana, although things were a bit fuzzy by the time we left.

I got home and slept for about 12 of the next 14 hours before getting up and going to the gym.

Sunrise in Barnesville, Md., Sept. 23, 2016; Photo by Gary Geernaert and featured in this CWG entry.

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The weather today was mostly cloudy until evening, at which point it cleared up. It reached 77F today -- rather than 90F+, as it did for the 57th time this year at KDCA yesterday -- with a northeasterly breeze. (We won't reach the 62 times record set both in 2010 and 1980.)

There is a chance of some much needed rain on Monday into Tuesday, but probably not enough to end the mild drought underway.

Here is interesting climate note from tonight's LWX discussion:

Autumn-like temperatures are finally making an appearance over the area, and DCA may fall below 60 degrees early Sunday morning for the first time since June 9th (total of 106 days through September 23rd). The record most consecutive days at or above 60 degrees in the Washington DC area is 112 set in 2012.

Changing subjects ...

Here is another worthwhile Nate Silver piece on the current state of the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and authoritarian lunatic Donald Trump (link embedded): Election Update: The Case For And Against Democratic Panic.

FiveThirtyEight.com Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump odds of winning electoral map (shaded) in the current polls plus forecast model, September 24, 2016.

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Excerpt (but without the embedded links on some of the terms):

There's also not much consensus among pollsters about where the race stands. On the one hand, you can cite several national polls this week that show Clinton ahead by 5 or 6 percentage points, the first time we've consistently seen numbers like that in a few weeks. She also got mostly favorable numbers in "must-win states,: such as New Hampshire. But Clinton also got some pretty awful polls this week in other swing states: surveys from high-quality pollsters showing her 7 points behind Donald Trump in Iowa, or 5 points behind him in Ohio, only tied with him in Maine, for instance. The differences are hard to reconcile: It's almost inconceivable that Clinton is both winning nationally by 6 points and losing Ohio (for example) by 5 points.


Sigh.

More and more, I'm starting to think Trump is going to win -- only in a plurality and in a frightfully close race, but that doesn't matter. At that point, America gets what it deserves. That's fine with me -- I'm free of any "ownership" of the self-inflicted multiple disasters that will befall the country in a Trump / rightwing Republican regime.

FiveThirtyEight.com Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump trend line of odds of winning from June 8th - Sept. 24th, 2016 in the current polls plus forecast model.


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I'm not watching the debate on Monday night. Besides, it's a gym night anyway, and although it will be on the televisions in the workout area -- and almost certainly on the one in the locker room -- the former ones are muted.

OK, that's all for now.

I'm heading out shortly. For tomorrow, I would like to take a walk and get lunch, probably in or around Bethesda or, alternatively, Old Town Alexandria. Anything to get out of the D.C. Bubble, even if it just to those nearby places.

Dramatic (but harmless) skies at sunrise over the Potomac River, Alexandria, Va., Sept. 18, 2016; Photo by Chris Militzer and posted on Twitter and reposted in a CWG entry about six days ago.

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My next planned update will be Monday night. As I have mentioned recently, I'm working onsite at DOE HQ for the time being and this requires me to get into work by 915AM-ish, so I am quite constrained in posting my usual late night entries. The ones I do post will necessarily have to be brief.

Jukebox Saturday Night edition to follow momentarily (as I have already composed it).

--Regulus

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