Thursday, December 3, 2015

Prelude to a Warm and Snowless December; November Precipitation Recap; General Update; and Dodging the Palka-Cabra's Drachenfeuer

Looking outside on a rainy afternoon from the Au Bon Pain at 600 Maryland Ave SW, Washington, D.C., 1:11PM December 2, 2015.

I'm a bit short on pictures for this entry, but I don't want to start posting the Annapolis or Pittsburgh ones randomly here just to break up the text.

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I had intended to update this entry with November precipitation stats but instead I'll do it in this entry. In addition, this entry notes the two-day rainfall total for Dec. 1st and 2nd. (It actually rained for three days starting on Nov. 30th.)

That weather system has moved out and now it will be dry until early next week with mild temps.


November Precipitation Overview ...

November, seasonal ("Clim. Fall"), and year-to-date (YTD) precipitation totals and departures compared to the current 30-year averages (1981-2010) are given below. Seasonal totals refer to the start of climatological fall on September 1st.

Note: The Maryland Science Center (KDMH) does not yet have a full 30-year base period average.

KDCA
Month: 2.10" -1.07" (3.17")
Clim. Fall: 7.29" -3.00" (10.29")
YTD: 40.18" +3.49" (36.69")

KBWI
Month: 2.42" -0.88" (3.30")
Clim. Fall: 9.07" -1.59" (10.66")
YTD: 45.31" +6.80" (38.51")


KIAD
Month: 2.06" -1.35" (3.41")
Clim. Fall: 8.34" -2.24" (10.58")
YTD: 35.62" -2.96" (38.58")

KDMH
Month: 2.41" -0.56" (2.97")
Clim. Fall: 8.49" -1.62" (10.11")
YTD: 36.99" -0.49" (37.48")


Dec. 1st and 2nd precipitation (rainfall) totals:

KDCA: 1.07"
KBWI: 1.01"
KIAD: 0.79"
KDMH: 0.93"

November temperature departures and high lows (with dates) were:

KDCA: 53.7F +4.1F; 80F (6th)/ 32F (23rd)

KBWI: 50.9F +4.4F; 80F (6th)/28F (23rd)

KIAD: 50.3F +3.9F; 80F (6th)/26F (21st)

KDMH: 54.0F +3.8F; 81F (6th)/33F (23rd)
(With respect to partial climate base period.)


Of note, the CWG's Matt Rogers had this post summarizing the November numbers, but I got these numbers directly from the Sterling LWX "Observed Weather Reports" page.

While tomorrow will feel blustery with a gusty northwesterly winds and highs in the lower 50s Fahrenheit**, thereafter conditions will relax and temps climb a tad with highs around 54F by the weekend.

**This is more or less normal; KDCA normal high for Dec. 3rd is 51F and the KBWI and KIAD highs are 49F and 50F, respectively.

Looking ahead, there isn't a frickin' sign of winter, and everyone seems to be thrilled about this now-nearly-ubiquitous view. Indeed, it is so universally held in the area now with assumptions of what that means that CWG felt compelled to post this entry (link embedded): Stop celebrating. The 'warm December' forecast doesn't mean what you think.

(I have a couple comments there as Arcturus24.)

Of course, it was just the day prior that the very same person, Angela Fritz of the CWG, posted this entry followed (link embedded): What winter? 'Historic warmth' possible in Northeast, Midwest in December.


Nevertheless, December still looks to be well above normal -- all the way to Christmas. The first entry (linked above) shows a map of the way-extended range temperature anomaly from NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) 4-ensemble run averaged for the period days 20 - 25 period:

The CFS 2-meter mean forecasted temperature departure (in C) for the four ensemble forecast runs averaged for the period 0Z 12/22/2015 - 0Z 12/27/2015.

The map was prettied up and re-released by WeatherBELL.com and reposted in the above-linked CWG entry.

It shows 4 to 6C temperature anomalies for almost a full week in the mid-Atlantic and over much of the eastern half of the Lower 48 and large swaths of eastern Canada. For the D.C. area, for a single day corresponds to temps of 40F for lows and 55F for highs. Of course, in practice it would be warmer than that on some of those days precisely because not all 6 of them would run +4 to +6C above normal (or at least that is highly unlikely).

If this verifies, or rather, in the week leading up to the time in question, appears certain to verify, I'm probably going to nix the planned Buffalo trip (even if I ostensibly still owe the money for it). As I said here, I'm just not going to be a plaything of the weather gods and bummed out there a second year in a row.

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General Update ...

(I may return to this section to post some pictures to break up the text.)

I was able to get up in time to avoid the advertised apartment building-wide hot water shutoff starting at 9AM, but it didn't actually go off at 9AM and was still on when I left around 940AM. (It's supposed to go off again tomorrow morning at 9AM. The plumbing work in this old building is endless.)

I had a busy day at work, although unexpectedly, four of my co-workers took me to a belated birthday lunch at Au Bon Pain at 600 Maryland Ave. SW (this is near our office). (That's where I took the lead image to this entry.)

I went to the gym tonight, where I had an OK workout stretching the usual duration and featuring the usual four parts (jogging, weightlifting, core, and a bit of swimming). However, I hurt one of right foot toes while jogging because of a screwed up Dr. Scholl's footpad in the sneaker (both footpads were old and needed to be removed, which I have done, and replaced). The toenail hurts quite a bit and I suspect I'm going to lose it. I'm worried this might interrupt my jogging routine on my next gym visit.

My intention is to go to the gym on Friday since I cannot go on Saturday for reasons that I will explain in a subsequent entry.

Speaking of the weather and the gym (YMCA Anthony Bowen), as I left the gym, I stopped at the front desk to chat with Calvin, who was working tonight. The TV in the little lobby area was on and turned up kind of loud -- and tuned to the local Fox 5.

Painfully for me, it was right as the Palka-Cabra appeared and started spewing her dragon fire... drachenfeuer  ...about how wonderful the weather will now be until further notice and how the local D.C. area bourgeoisie should all praise Suburban Jesus and visit His Big Box Retail Stores now that the rain has cleared up.

Calvin kindly muted the TV for me as we chatted. Actually, he found the whole thing kinda funny.

The Palka-Cabra and her She-Dragon dragon fire.

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Tomorrow is a non-gym night, and I may not update the blog again until Friday. Oh, yes, I also have an early afternoon doctors appointment in Chevy Chase. I need to talk to my doctor about whether I need to be on high blood pressure medication -- or just an anti-anxiety tranquilizer.

OK, that's all for now. (As I said, I may update this entry with some additional pictures if I can locate some appropriate ones.)

G'night.

--Regulus

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