Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Late Night Blogging Oscillations and a Preview of the Impending Christmas Eve Record Warmth

Forested path in Battery Kemble Park, Washington, D.C., 4:49PM December 20, 2015.

Yes, it looks like of dull and vapid.

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Not much to say tonight.

I had planned a longer entry but I'm kind of bummed out tonight, mostly because I think I've plateaued in my gym routine. At the end of the day, I still look like an ashen-gray leprechaun and have the vapid, small-statured body of a 46-year old hybrid Polish-Italian peasant man.

There is no way I can compete -- nor do I try to -- with the 20-something guys at the gym.


True, I do not have the body of so many of my age and gender American cohorts, namely, that of buccal-pumping frogs ...

... married to overweight, cheesecake-eating, deeply concerned-about-everything wives that comprise at least a portion of the awful set that I used to know through Wall-P, a.k.a., Pitty Shil.

To be clear, Pitty Shil and its Staff are not like that.

In that case, there are different issues involving being gilded caged tools of the 0.1% oligarchical overclass, and with dogs substituting for children -- and urban dog parks in lieu of suburban kindergarten classes and parent-teacher conferences -- but let's not get into that now.

Chads outdoor sign, Friendship Heights, Washington, D.C., 3:18PM December 20, 2015.

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Anyway, I need to take a course at the YMCA involving core workout because that's my weakest link. My weight is mostly holding steady (around 147 pounds) but I still look doughy in the mirror when just in bathing trunks, all the more so given my short stature.

A large house somewhere in the Friendship Heights section of Washington, D.C., 3:31PM December 20, 2015.

I don't recall the cross street -- maybe Garrison.

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Changing subjects ...

There was a lot of drama involving two people that I know -- one at Rebellion and another at Larry's Lounge this past weekend. I saw none of it, and I'm just happy none of it involved me. Rather, I had a very nice time with my mom's Friday night visit and then on Saturday at the holiday party in Ballston (with people 15+ years younger than I am), and on Sunday in an extended walk with Chester that ended at, yes, Larry Lounge.

A house along Tilden Street NW in the Spring Valley section of Washington, D.C., 4:07PM December 20, 2015.

I don't recall the exact street address number.

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Chester is a good friend of mine from my meteorology grad school days -- the GRAVY TRAIN! -- and I met him around the time I met Gary. The three of us became friends at that time. Chester is the person with whom I took the Baltimore boundary points tour back in October 2012. He lives in or near Ellicott City with his wife and children, and I don't see him that often.

We took the Metro to Friendship Heights and went to Chads for lunch (that is one of the former Chadwicks locations). Then we walked on that route I've taken many times involving Friendship Heights, Spring Valley, and Palisades into Georgetown and back to Dupont Circle.

The produce section of the Safeway in the Palisades section of Washington, D.C., 4:56PM December 20, 2015.

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I've written about Spring Valley before on this blog -- D.C.'s wealthiest neighborhood that is also contains an EPA Superfund site.

Chester and I had great conversation the entire time including about meteorology (he kind of does it for a living). One of the takeaway messages I got is that there is still no good known teleconnection mechanism for how a major warm ENSO event affects the mode (phase) of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (now positive) and its North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) component.

SST anomalies during a typical "El Niño" event and a Modoki El Niño event.

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While ENSO effects on the United States are often described as being the most dominant, Chester said that the AO and NAO are at least as important for the U.S. East Coast in the winter time. As for warm ENSO events, they come in at least two flavors -- the regular one and the "Modoki" one. The consequences for shifts in convective patterns are profound.

Current NOAA/NESDIS 50-km resolution SST anomalies for December 21, 2015.

It looks like a "classic" major warm ENSO event, although my understanding is that there are elements of it in terms of shifts in convection that are a bit atypical.

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Finally, he said it is important to pay attention to certain happenings with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) not just for what it does in the tropics in terms of shifts in convection patterns but also for reasons that are not clear, correlations to regime (pattern) changes in eastern North America. Such a change may happen in mid-January. I'm unsure of the exact teleconnection mechanism by which that happens but it occurs when the center point of this convective "dipole" propagates eastward across Indonesia.

A schematic of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

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Animated gif showing the MJO precipitation cycle across the Earth as measured by TRMM for a 48-day period.

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Chester: Let me know if I said any of that incorrectly.

Speaking of things now in January, Gary was able to work some magic and reschedule the Buffalo trip to Martin Luther King, Jr., holiday weekend at the same cost -- although it is a shortened trip from Jan. 16th to 18th, so a significant portion of the duration has been lopped off.

We are committed to going -- even if it doesn't snow and temps are still way above normal.

As for a weather update ...



It is a mild, mostly cloudy night with temps. around 54F and a southerly breeze. The first in a series of rain events is forecasted but there is also the record warmth -- highs of 75F at KDCA -- forecasted for Christmas Eve and near 70F on Christmas Day.

The former will easily be a daily record, the latter will flirt with it. There will likely also be record high low temps (i.e., max minima).

Here is some info from the Sterling (LWX) area forecast discussion on the daily records:

Dec. 24 daily records (highs and max min):
KDCA: 69F / 58F
KBWI: 65F / 53F
KIAD: 66F / 42F

Forecasted Dec. 24th temps (high and lows):
KDCA: 75F / 63F
KBWI: 73F / 61F
KIAD: 73F / 61F

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Of note, the all-time December records -- both daily highs and nighttime max min:

KDCA: 79F / 62F
KBWI:: 77F / 59F
KIAD: 79F / 62F

This indicates that all three airport climate stations will surpass their all-time max-min temps -- and this will happen not at the start of the month but rather closer to the end of it, which is quite amazing.

For the first 20 days of December we have the following:
KDCA: 48.8F / 3rd warmest (warmest is 2001 at 51.0F)
KBWI: 45.9F / 4th warmest (warmest is 2001 at 47.7F)
KIAD: 45.4F / 3rd warmest (warmest is 2001 at 47.0F)

OK, I am very tired and I'm going to end this entry now. I may not post an entry again until Wednesday night. Also, I think I'm taking off Wednesday from the gym -- so I won't go again until Saturday. It's the lead-up to Christmas and I think I'm just going to do that.

Going to bed now. I'm hoping I can get back to that dream I had last night where I was flying around in what I determined to be the year 3010 trying to figure out the world of that time.

--Regulus

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