Friday, December 20, 2013

Under the December Mackerel Sky: Morning Update and Impending Record Warmth

A mackerel sky of (what I think are) cirrocumulus clouds over L'Enfant Plaza, Washington, D.C., 11:17AM December 19, 2013. It's always hard to tell with these kinds of clouds -- frequently they are a mix with altocumulus or other types.

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Sorry for lack of updates last night. I stayed at work late (around 730PM). Then I walked to the National Capital YMCA, where I had a good 35 minute swim in the big pool. Thereafter, I stopped at D-I-K where I had dinner downstairs where Chris was working, and then came home by midnight-ish. Needless to say, I was wiped out.

I don't feel that well this morning.

I intend to update the blog tonight and tomorrow and/or Sunday. However, I have to do at least 6 hours of work spread over the weekend -- editing and making other changes to a series of documents for the big Hawaii project, so that may limit my blogging time.

Weather update: Possible record warmth...

Before I end this entry, I want to post a brief weather update on the impending warm weather.

The 0Z 12/19/2013 ECMWF model output as graphically presented by WeatherBELL showing 6-hourly 2-meter maximum temperatures (in Fahrenheit) valid at hour 96 / 0Z 12/23/2013 (i.e., 7PM EST Sunday 12/22/2013 but for the preceding six hours, which is to say, Sunday high temperatures).

It shows highs into the lower 70s. This forecast map appeared on the CWG in this entry.

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Additionally, below is info that first appeared yesterday in the Sterling LWX discussion and is still in the current discussion as regards the possible record warmth this weekend, especially Sunday, ahead of a frontal passage that should bring rain showers and maybe even a t-storm Saturday into Monday morning.

These are the max and min record high temps at KDCA, KBWI, and KIAD. The KDCA and KBWI records also include the pre-airport records for Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Md., respectively. (I've adapted the stylistic presentation slightly.)

DAILY HI MIN TEMP RECORD (YR) / DAILY MAX TEMP RECORD (YR) (in Fahrenheit)


12/20 ...
KBWI: 51 (1957) / 67 (1877)
KDCA:.52 (1895) / 66 (1889)
KIAD: 43 (2011) / 64 (1988)

12/21...
KBWI: 52 (1895) / 62 (2011)
KDCA: 51 (1895) / 68 (1923)
KIAD: 46 (1998) / 61 (2011)

12/22...
KBWI: 48 (1931) / 70 (1889)
KDCA: 49 (1923) / 72 (1889)
KIAD: 49 (1990) / 67 (1984)

12/23...(HI MIN TEMP ONLY)
KBWI: 59 (1990)*
KDCA: 57 (1990)
KIAD: 61 (1990)*

* = WARMEST DAILY HI MIN TEMP IN DECEMBER

Thereafter, temps should go back to normal to below-normal -- indeed, the long range GFS model output shows it might be quite cold and stormy the first few days in January.

OK, that's all for now.

--Regulus

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