Saturday, December 7, 2013

Neither a Starry Trek nor a Desilu Production: Wintry Weather Update, Saturday Doings, and Late Night Fun with DC Court Docket Searches

The corner house at 1444 S Street NW as seen from 15th Street NW, Washington, D.C., 3:30PM Dec. 7, 2013.

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Saturday night. I'm home doing a few loads of laundry (well, the washing machines and dryers in the basement of the building are doing it -- I'm just waiting for them to be done) while watching the Me TV Sci Fi Saturday Night line up.

It is my usual Saturday night routine of watching these shows ("Lost in Space", "Star Trek: The Original Series", and the start of the Svengoolie-hosted monster movie, this week "The Mummy's Ghost") followed by going out to some combo of Larry's Lounge, No. 9, and /or Nellie's, and possibly doing dinner first. I haven't been to Old Ebbitt Grill in a while. Last week, I ended up at Trio with Chris.

OK, first let's just get the weather forecast out of the way.

NWS Sterling (LWX) webpage showing current county warning area (CWA) weather advisories in effect as of 9:14PM Dec. 7, 2013. The deep pink are winter storm warnings and the light purple winter weather advisories. (When more than one weather advisory is in effect, the "most serious" one takes precedence on the map.)

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For starters, the advertised wintry precipitation event for the mid-Atlantic including the Metro D.C. and Baltimore areas is still on schedule with relative model consistency. However, a situation like this features lots of subtle issues such as the strength of the Arctic high and degree of ridging, the speed the high moves offshore, resulting thermal profiles as warmer air comes in from the south, and any potential precipitation banding.

As shown in the LWX CWA map above, Sterling LWX has put D.C. and Baltimore City and the eastern and southern suburbs under a winter weather advisory for tomorrow while a winter storm warning is now in effect for points north and west, as well as farther to the southwest around Charlottesville.

NCEP SREF plum for precipitation type and probability of precipitation (POP) at KDCA from the 12/7/2013 21UTC run for the period Dec. 8th - Dec. 10th, 2013.

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Having been through these events countless times in so many winters, my hunch is that any snow in the immediate D.C. area will be minimal, especially in the District proper, and then there will be a brief period of sleet followed by some light freezing rain. Surface and near-surface temps will warm above freezing on the early side (by Sunday evening) and this whole event will be mostly a non-issue.

NCEP SREF plum for 3-hour snowfall at KDCA from the 12/7/2013 21UTC run for the period Dec. 8th - Dec. 10th, 2013.

By the way, the QPF amounts for the next 48 hours in the 21Z SREF run range for the various ensemble members run from 0.77" to 2.52" (liquid equivalent of all types of precipitation).

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Snow and sleet chances through Sunday night for the extended D.C. region in a map from this Capital Weather Gang entry using the probabilistic approach-based impact zones that I discussed in my previous entry.

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Ice accumulations through Sunday night for the extended D.C. region in another map from the same CWA entry using the approach of probabilities and impacts grouped into zones.

As the map above indicates, farther to the west into northern and western Montgomery and Frederick Counties, Maryland and Loudoun and Fairfax Counties, Virginia, and even farther west into the Potomac Highlands, Shenandoah, and Blue Ridge, there could be a more substantial ice storm.

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The Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation (SPIA) Index showing an ice damage index based on ice amounts, and wind speeds with descriptions of the resulting damage and associated impacts.

To be clear, nobody needs a massive ice storm. I just want some powdery snow.

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Several points:

First, winter weather advisories for our area are a little like the unsigned "house" editorials of The Washington Post written by the awful Fred Hiatt and his "Washington Consensus" gang: You see that it they have been issued; you eventually come around to reading them; and a little part of your soul dies. (I need to credit this thought to my friend Gary, who texted me the idea.)

Secondly, it has been my hunch for the past few winters that the winter of 2009-'10 triple snowstorm whammy in this area (one in December 2009 and two back-to-back ones in February 2010) was the statistical kiss of death for any meaningful snowfall here for at least a decade.

Third, even if we got a major snowfall in D.C., our "official" KDCA climate station would come in far below that amount, there would be a fuss, and Sterling would put out a statement defending "the robustness and accuracy" of the station's numbers.

Finally, as the Sterling LWX 3:15PM and current (8:54PM) discussions noted, today's 12Z ECWMF ("Euro") model shows all the precipitation on late Monday and Tuesday in a subsequent system by-passing the D.C. area to the south. So that's that. The models are NEVER wrong when the forecast a MISS.

Now if for some reason I am wrong and this turns into a larger and more "impactful" event, I will, of course, update this entry or post a new one to note the change.

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The upstairs corner view from D-I-K overlooking 17th and R Streets NW, Washington, D.C., on a rainy night, 12:02AM Dec. 7, 2013.

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So last night, I went to No. 9, although once again it was closing early on Friday night at 11PM, and then to D-I-K, first downstairs where I had dinner at the bar (Chris was working) and then upstairs, where I had a few conversations with bar acquaintances.

As for my day, I slept late, getting up around 1PM, and got ready to go out.

I brought my bicycle to The Bike Rack on Q Street because the gears have all but locked up. The mechanic evaluated it and said he could fix it for $105. I had been ready to pay the $139 for an even more substantial repairs.

There is also the complete strip down and rebuilding option for $225, but that is not needed in my case.

Thereafter, I went to the gym (Anthony Bowen YMCA) and had an hour long jog, an hour of only light machine weight-lifting (I still felt a bit sore from Wednesday's workout, which was on the heavy side, and I was still tired), and then a half hour swim. I haven't been to the National Capital YMCA in about two weeks now. I still like the place for its much larger pool. Of note, my weight hasn't budged from 142.5 pounds in the past month.

That's about all I wanted to relate. Oh, yes, after I got home around 230AM last night, I went to the D.C. court system (both Superior and Court of Appeals) online case docket database. The direct link is here. I had some fun typing in different names and seeing what came up.

Upstairs at No. 9 at Washington, D.C., 10:45PM Dec. 6, 2013.

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My own name produces three returns -- two from 2009 and one from 2011 -- that were all the legal agents of collection agencies suing me on behalf of credit card companies (the Ebola virus of America). In all three cases, I settled and have paid off the debts. Of note, the 2011 one having been settled without my need to go to court (although I probably should have gone anyway).

Rainy night around Dupont Circle as seen from the 1500 block of P Street looking toward the 16th Street NW, Washington, D.C., 11:10PM Dec. 6, 2013.

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I typed in MH's name, and one item came up, but I don't think that's the same person (i.e., M. Wade Tipamillyun) that I mention on this blog. I believe there is at least one other MH living in D.C. (You can only enter a first and last name, no middle name or initial.) As for this guy, the August 2012 one was kind of interesting, although it appears it was all settled.

OK, that's all for now. I was going to post a quick jukebox Saturday night musical entry but I may just skip it this week. 

I'll sign off this entry with the same image you see in the closing credits of the original "Star Trek."

However, it won't be followed in nicely cursive, yellow writing by the words: "A Desilu Production". However, I do think it's amazing that it was Lucille Ball herself who opted to produce that show back circa 1965.

--Regulus

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