Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Overview of July 17th,2018 D.C. Area Deluge With Photos; KDCA Daily Record Rainfall Set; Plus, Regional Precip Summaries and Stats

Cumulus humulus cloud above the Shaw neighborhood of Washington, D.C., 2:19 p.m. July 18, 2018.

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This entry is an overview of the deluge that occurred yesterday -- July 17th, 2018 -- that the ended the 19-day dry spell here in and around the D.C. area in rather spectacular fashion with Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA) officially logging 2.79 inches of rain falling in a one-hour period including 2.63 inches in a 42-minute period.

Flooded George Washington Parkway near National Airport, Arlington, Va., July 17, 2018; image taken from CWG entry linked below.

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Baltimore, Md., as measured at Thurgood Marshall BWI Airport (KBWI), had even more with 3.35 inches. Downtown Baltimore at the Maryland Science Center (KDMH) picked up just a scant 0.35 inches as most of the storms missed it.

Frame grab of video of rainwater pouring into the Capitol South Station, Washington, D.C., July 17, 2018; image from CWG entry linked below.

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Washington Dulles International Airport (KIAD) recorded 1.11 inches including 1.05 inches during the main event.


The totals at all three airport stations were enough for daily rainfall records -- in the case of KIAD, due mostly to the fact that the recording period only goes back to April 1960 versus Jan 1871 for KDCA and KBWI to include their pre-airport periods.

For KDCA, the previous daily record was 2.05 inches set in 1945 (right around the time that KDCA became the official weather station).

It was also the most rainfall in a single day since July 28, 2017 and second most for any day in July since 1975. (I'm not sure why 1975 was chosen.) .

Some other factoids:

* More rain fell from the storm in an hour than had been observed in the previous 38 days at KDCA.

* During the deluge, 0.95 inches of rain fell in just nine minutes and 1.22 inches fell in 15 minutes. Such rainfall intensities are expected only once every 10 to 50 years on average.

*In the 2016 Ellicott City flood (not to be confused with the 2018 Ellicott City flood), 3.2 inches of rain fell in 30 minutes (as measured in a rain gauge at a Howard County gov't building).

The previous KBWI daily record of 2.25 inches was set in 1947 (a pre-airport record). The previous KIAD record was just 0.60 inches set in 1988.

Below are monthly, seasonal, and yearly totals to date (through July 17th, 2018) for KDCA, KBWI, KIAD, and KDMH compared to the NWS 1981 - 2010 base period (given in parentheses). (In the case of KDHM, it does not yet have a full 30-year average base period.) "Seasonal" refers to climatological summer starting June 1st.

KDCA
Month-to-date: 2.79" +0.69" (2.10")
Season-to-date: 8.00" +2.12" (5.88")
Year-to-date: 27.97" +6.13" (21.84")

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KBWI
Month-to-date: 4.26" +2.07" (2.19")
Season-to-date: 9.03" +3.38" (5.65")
Year-to-date: 28.95" +6.27" (22.68")

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KIAD
Month-to-date: 1.99" -0.02" (2.01")
Season-to-date: 6.16" +0.17" (5.99")
Year-to-date: 26.81" +4.00" (22.81")

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KDMH
Month-to-date: 1.09" -1.46" (2.55")
Season-to-date: 4.29" -1.53" (5.82")
Year-to-date: 26.68" +4.77" (21.91")

KDMH records are based on a record stretching back only to 1998.

One other item -- in the CWG entry, it quotes a National Airport weather observer  as saying: "I've been here 40 years. I've never had that."

I can believe that.

Flooded Four Mile Run, Arlington, Va., July 17, 2018; frame grab image from above-linked CWG entry.

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I would also note that between him and the guy who oversaw the FAA contractor crew of airport weather observers for at least 30 years (a fact I knew from a certain ex-friend of mine who knew him)  -- there is fully 70 years of KDCA observations.

That's 70 years staring at the same damn tarmac and same vapid, polluted river. That's a WHOLE LOTTA "partly cloudy and mild" and in winter, the inevitable "snow quickly changing to rain with little or no accumulation."

Speaking of that other guy (and I don't particularly want to mention his name), he also has provided the official snowfall measurements for KDCA for at least a 30-year period possibly ending in 2009 (unsure of his current status) and coincidentally or not, that damn 1979 Presidents Day storm snow total has never been broken. It is the 4th largest Washington, D.C., total, but the top two are pre-KDCA records.

Here is a chart of the top 10 biggest snowstorms for Washington, D.C. (KDCA and pre-KDCA), Baltimore, Md. (KBWI and pre-KBWI), and Washington Dulles Int'l Airport (KIAD):

Click on image for larger version; text quality isn't that good; source here.

Instead of a distinct snowstorm, the measurement period is "3-days" since that is -- invariably -- the duration of a standalone (distinct) major snowstorm in our region. Occasionally, there is a follow-on minor event on day 4/5 (as happened in Jan. 1996).

Note the strange way the next six all cluster. Having been here in (or very close) to D.C. for five of those six, I just buy it, but it's not for me to decide. Source here.

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Reagan Washington National Airport in the foreground and Washington, D.C., in the distance.

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As for yesterday's deluge, on a personal note, it didn't seem abnormally heavy or prolonged to me.

It resembled any number of typical, short-lived drenching summer downpours, and I figured maybe an inch fell. I wasn't too far from National Airport at L'Enfant Plaza about 2.4 miles away directly from the ASOS spot. I mention this because almost always in these events, what falls officially at KDCA is significantly less than what I perceive.

I recall this episode back in Aug. 2011 when I went to Friday night baseball game at Nationals Park, and there occurred an extended monsoon-like deluge that dropped about 3 inches of rainfall over the course of 90 minutes.

Split image of flooded Martha Custis Drive, Alexandria, Va., July 17, 2018; images by twitter user Amelia Draper and reposted in above-linked CWG entry.

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In the end, though, KDCA ASOS spot -- located just about 2.1 miles away from the stadium and with the general area visible across the river -- picked up just 1.53 inches. I mention the view because it appeared to be deluging at National Airport itself. And, no, I don't think I'm always overestimating precipitation. Rather, I think in thunderstorm events, a non-trivial fraction simply doesn't fall into the gauge.

Building exterior, 1400 block Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, D.C., 7:54 p.m. July 15, 2018.

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By the way, in that entry, you will see photos of me, Keep in mind that I was quite doughy-pudgy back then, not to mention friends with forever ex-friend GASY the Hangry Chipmungorilla. Thank GOD that ended.

Yellow flowers (daisies, I guess) in a driveway, Georgetown, Washington, D.C., 3:38 p.m. July 15, 2018.

This was near Dumbarton and 31st St.

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Anyway, in this weather event, clearly this always-less-rainfall-at-National Airport was not the case -- and, indeed, as the some of the pictures from Arlington and Alexandria show, areas right around the airport got the rainfall jackpot and resulting flooding. However, there were no reported injuries or anything like that.

A pink flower growing in a small yard, 2000 block 13th St NW, Washington, D.C., 2:08 p.m. July 17, 2018.

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OK, I'm going to wrap up this entry. I'm home tonight just resting and watching my old lineup on MeTV in my tiny, dimly lamp-lit, air conditioned apartment. Today was a day that I just wanted to get home from work and cocoon. Tomorrow night is a gym night for me. I'll try to post an entry thereafter.

--Regulus

Monday, July 16, 2018

Helsinki, July 16th, 2018: A Day That Will Live in Treasonous Trump Infamy** -OR- Putin's Asset Becomes U.S. National Security Emergency

NOTE: This entry was initially posted shortly before midnight on July 16th in order for it to have a time stamp on that day. It wasn't actually posted in final form until about 8:00 p.m. July 17th, 2018. I have added some additional content from July 17th as well.

**With sincerest apologies to Franklin Delano Roosevelt, a towering historical figure and one of history's greats -- and who should never be said in the same breath as Donald J. Trump even though by the shameful turn of fate, both occupy the role of President of the United States of America.

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The Helsinki Summit with Putin handing Trump a sucker, I mean, a soccer ball, July 16, 2018 (Thanks to the usual FIFA corruption, Russia hosted the just-concluded quadrennial World Cup.)

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It has been quite a remarkable day -- in a historically disastrous in terms of United States presidential history -- as a result of Trump's truly shocking performance at the wholly unnecessary Helsinki Summit between him and Russian President and KGB kleptocratic murdering thug Vladimir Putin.

Washington post online headlines earlier today.

Of note, the then-lead story shown in the banner headline -- available here -- presently has over 21,000 comments associated with it.

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TPM headline of Neil Cavuto's Fox News reaction to the Trump-Putin shit show in Helsinki, July 16, 2018.

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Even quite a few of the "on air talent" at Trump State Television -- a.k.a., Fox News -- was at quite a loss all day to figure out what the Party Line response on this should be with some -- including Neil Cavuto -- simply condemning Trump outright. By contrast, the Usual Suspects -- Hannity, Carlson, Ingraham -- were busy Trump posterior-kissing while playing the now-familiar "What About?" game of eternal rightwing victimology. Ditto the Vulgar Lying Pigboy on Hate Radio.

New York Times online headlines, July 16, 2018.

Note: I removed a banner advertisement between the masthead and the actual content, so this image is really a composite of two images. I thought it important to capture the content.

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As for CNN and MSNBC, not to mention the world of elite Beltway journalism embodied in the Washington Post and New York Times, words just failed everybody -- but not for want of trying.


It wasn't just what that was said was remarkable but who was saying it. I assume I will read (and, indeed, look forward to reading) such things from Jonathan Chait and Charlie Pierce -- and both men came through -- but it doesn't surprise me. It is quite another when those descriptions are coming from folks such as Anderson Cooper, Thomas Friedman, David Gergen, David Frum, and James Fallows, among others.

As for Chris Matthews on Hardball, he was uncharacteristically subdued precisely because he was so shell-shocked.

CNN headline on about former CIA Director John Brennan's comments.

The actual Twitter tweet is shown as a screen capture here:


The Post's shitty Fred "why-won't-he-just-retire-and-go-away-already" Barbash decided to play some bullshit Georgetown dinner party semantics games about whether or not Trump behaved treasonously -- and he tendentiously decided that he did not.

This is Barbash's idea of being too clever by half -- and it just ends up just a glorified way of trolling his readers. Of course, during the late 1990s heyday of the Clinton Wars when it was all about Monica's Dress and The Cigar, Barbass, I mean, Barbash couldn't get enough of his "high crimes and misdemeanors."

July 16th op-ed columns in the online Washington Post: One topic dominated.

Uncle Fred Hiatt's came out in "The Post's View" a bit later. 

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Having said all this, I should note that it was only Fox News correspondent Chris Wallace who confronted Putin in what Putin probably assumed would be a friendly interview that occurred after the Putin's meeting with Trump.

Screenshot of the video of Chris Wallace interviewing Vladimir Putin, July 16, 2018.

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During the interview, Wallace handed him a copy of the Justice Department indictments of 12 Russian intelligence officials for their Russian state-sponsored cyber-criminal interference in the 2016 presidential election, specifically, the hacking of tens of thousands of DNC and DCCC emails.

This hacking happened literally hours after Trump publicly asked the Russian government to find the "missing 30,000 emails" (a somewhat different matter). 

The stolen emails were then strategically leaked over the course of month via "DC Leaks" and "Guccifer 2.0" in order to harm Hillary Clinton's campaign and keep the terms "emails" and "Hillary" in the news (both of which succeeded thanks to the American media and 25 years of a rabid Anti-Hillary campaign by the right, plus that disgusting Electoral College.

During the interview, Wallace also asked him why so many Putin critics ended up dead. (This is a common question for most Russian leaders throughout its long, horrible history.) Putin said something about the assassination of JFK and Martin Luther King.

Slate headline from earlier today.

The Post's editorial writer Ruth Marcus said the same thing. I usually can't stand that woman, but today I agree with her. 

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As for what actually happened in Helsinki today, it was during a the 45-minute news conference ("presser"), that Donald J. Trump -- the titular "President" of the United States through cyberwarfare, general criminality, and historical accident -- abased himself before Putin while (as the New York Times article noted) "appeared to absolve Moscow of many irritants in the relationship with Russia, including the election hacking, the annexation of Crimea, Russian backing for rebels in Ukraine and for the Assad government in Syria, and Moscow's suspected use of a nerve agent to poison people in Britain."

Split video screenshot of the start of the sick, sordid Helsinki Affair.

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This followed a two-hour pas de deux between Putin and Trump in which no third parties were there -- just translators. Of course, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the room were well-bugged by multiple parties.

Huffington Post headline for the Trump-Putin summit, July 16, 2018

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Others have noted that Trump was once again making a moral equivalency argument, in this case, between the U.S. and the Putin regime (and for reasons that remain murky), as he shamefully did in the Charlottesville attack last year, equating white neo-Nazis with peaceful protestors.

TPM headline, July 16, 2018

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What I'm going to do is just post part of Dan Balz Washington Post article (link embedded): The moment called for Trump to stand up for America. He chose to bow.

When the history of Donald Trump’s presidency is ultimately written, July 16, 2018, will have a special entry. On a day when the setting called for a show of strength and resolve from an American president, Trump instead offered deference, defensiveness, equivocation and weakness.



If anyone can recall a performance by a U.S. president that rivaled the one seen around the world Monday, let them come forward. In the meantime, Trump’s extraordinary joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin will stand on its own, for sheer shock value and for the reality of an opportunity lost.

Here was a president turning his back on the collective work of U.S. intelligence agencies, looking the other way at indictments returned last week by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III against 12 Russian military intelligence officers who sought to undermine American democracy during the 2016 election, and falling back as he so often has on attacks against Hillary Clinton, criticism of Democrats and boasts about the size of his electoral college victory.


In reality, he did more than turn his back on the evidence of Russian attacks on the U.S. electoral process. He all but rejected it. In an attempt to say both sides have their views of what happened during the last presidential election, he proffered that his own view is that he can't bring himself to accept that the Russians did it. "I don’t see any reason why [Russia would interfere]," he said.

It is a fiction to which he has reverted from the very beginning of his presidency, in the face of repeated and escalating evidence to the contrary. In Helsinki, he said that the Russian leader had offered “an extremely strong and powerful denial” of interference and so he would not forcefully offer evidence to the contrary. What he may have said in the private meeting with Putin is lost to history, given the absence of notetakers or advisers present.

One can only imagine Putin’s satisfaction at the way things have turned out. His country’s attacks on U.S. democracy have sown internal discord and distrust, setting Americans against Americans. He has watched the U.S.- European alliance come under enormous strain, with the president now branding the European Union a foe.


On Monday, he watched Trump bow to what the president must assume are the demands of diplomacy -- offering public praise and compliments to the Russian, instead of blunt talk when called for -- rather than standing up, as Putin did when he was questioned about the interference.

Monday’s news conference was the capstone to an international trip in which, at every opportunity, the president undercut U.S. allies in Europe while playing nice with Putin. He did this through repeated derogatory tweets, backroom hectoring of European leaders (especially German Chancellor Angela Merkel), interviews with the British media (in which he attacked British Prime Minister Theresa May) and the U.S. press, and in public settings with other world heads of government.

Together they added up to a moment that will leave a mark on Trump’s presidency. That's not to say it will fundamentally change the course of his presidency, given the fluidity of events, the reality that attention spans are short and the probability of more shocks from various directions that will put the focus elsewhere. Nothing much changes minds about the president, and this trip and Monday's news conference might not, either.


But as a reportable moment, as a measure of character and leadership, what the world witnessed will help to shape ultimate judgments about Trump. Time and again, in the face of strong and direct questions by two American reporters, Jeff Mason of Reuters and Jonathan Lemire of the Associated Press, the president refused to stand up for the country he was elected to represent and protect.

New York Daily News print edition cover, July 17, 2018.

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The piece goes on to wonder what, if any, backbone the present-day GOP will show toward this Great Orange Monster who so easily hijacked their party -- itself having morphed into a weird cult of panicked ethnonationalist whites at the bottom and Dark Money oligarchs on the top and glued together with a bizarre "fusion" ideology of fundamentalism and libertarianism. In the end, no backbone will be forthcoming since Mitch the Bitch (a.k.a., Mr. Elaine Chao) and his ilk made that Faustian bargain with Trump in exchange for what really sexually arouses them: An endless parade of far right federal judge nominees and tax giveaways to the ultra-rich.


That is, the answer of what will the GOP do is: Nothing. Unfortunately, there is only one Sen. John McCain. The rest are useless, amoral tools.

Left: Mitch the Amoral Bitch and his jowls ponder more Supreme Court justices and Dark Money oligarchs to secure the 1,000-year GOP of Error.

And as for that fucking GOP Base -- representing maybe three-quarters of that 35 percent or so of the electorate (and rising to 45 percent when the news is slow and/or low-information voters are included) -- they are unreachable and, yes, deplorable.

Meghan McCain's tweet reaction to Trump's Helsinki abasement before Putin.

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They are the Hannity / Talk Radio / InfoWars crowd that decide GOP primaries in severely gerrymandered districts and that Trump himself could lead into a gas chamber -- and they'd still be screaming about Hillary's emails and Nancy Pelosi. That is the beast that the GOP has helped to nurture for the past half century (coupled with downwardly immobile economics).

That aside, here James Fallow's take on it in The Atlantic: This Is the Moment of Truth for Republicans.

From the perspective of the next day -- July 17th -- the GOP as a party completely and totally failed it because they had to for reasons that we all know (tax cuts for oligarchs and libertarian - fundamentalist legal "originalism").

As for David Frum's piece -- also in The Atlantic -- I want to repost it in full:

The Crisis Facing America

The country can no longer afford to wait to ascertain why President Trump has subordinated himself to Putin—it must deal with the fact that he has.

DAVID FRUM
JUL 16, 2018
Source here.

We still do not know what hold Vladimir Putin has upon President Trump, but the whole world has now witnessed the power of its grip.

Russia helped Donald Trump into the presidency, as Robert Mueller’s indictment vividly details. Putin, in his own voice, has confirmed that he wanted Trump elected. Standing alongside his benefactor, Trump denounced the special counsel investigating the Russian intervention in the U.S. election -- and even repudiated his own intelligence appointees.


Learned what happened each weekday in five sentences, find out what our editors are reading, and more.

This is an unprecedented situation, but not an uncontemplated one. At the 1787 convention in Philadelphia, the authors of the Constitution worried a great deal about foreign potentates corrupting the American presidency.


When Gouverneur Morris famously changed his mind in favor of an impeachment clause, he explained his new point of view by invoking a situation very like that now facing the United States:

Our Executive was not like a Magistrate having a life interest, much less like one having an hereditary interest in his office. He may be bribed by a greater interest to betray his trust; and no one would say that we ought to expose ourselves to the danger of seeing the first Magistrate in foreign pay without being able to guard [against] it by displacing him.


The United States was then a comparatively poor and vulnerable country, so the Founders imagined corruption taking the form of some princely emolument that would enable an ex-president to emigrate and—in the words of Charles Cotesworth Pinckney -- “live in greater splendor in another country than his own.” Yet they understood that even the most developed countries were not immune to the suborning of their leaders. As Morris said, "One would think the King of England well secured [against] bribery. ... Yet Charles II was bribed by Louis XIV.”

The reasons for Trump's striking behavior -- whether he was bribed or blackmailed or something else -- remain to be ascertained. That he has publicly refused to defend his country’s independent electoral process -- and did so jointly with the foreign dictator who perverted that process -- is video-recorded fact.


And it’s a fact that has to be seen in the larger context of his actions in office: denouncing the EU as a “foe,” threatening to break up nato, wrecking the U.S.-led world trading system, intervening in both U.K. and German politics in support of extremist and pro-Russian forces, and his continued refusal to act to protect the integrity of U.S. voting systems -- it adds up to a political indictment whether or not it quite qualifies as a criminal one.

America is a very legalistic society, in which public discussion often deteriorates into lawyers arguing whether any statutes have been violated. But confronting the country in the wake of Helsinki is this question: Can it afford to wait to ascertain why Trump has subordinated himself to Putin after the president has so abjectly demonstrated that he has subordinated himself? Robert Mueller is leading a legal process. The United States faces a national-security emergency.

Indeed.

--Regulus

Saturday, July 14, 2018

Jukebox Saturday Night for July 14th, 2018: Art Tatum Does Dvorak, Blue Knights, and a Kool & The Gang Celebration Edition


"Humoresque" by the great Art Tatum from his multi-volume release The Genius of Art Tatum, Vol. 1 (1953)

This is Tatum's version of Dvořák's classic masterpiece Humoresques (1894). 

Bryan Wright featured this piece -- along with another version of it -- on his most recent Shellac Stack podcast. (In the discography that Bryan read, he gave a date of 1940.)

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Next up, a nice smooth jazz piece …


"Venice Beach" by Blue Knights from the duo's Tropical Night release (1996)

The only information I could find out about Blue Knights is the group's blog last updated in 2014. According to that site, one of the members -- Curtis McLaw -- was also part of the New Age instrumental duo Dancing Fantasy.

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Before I end with an upbeat Kool & The Gang song, I'd like to re-feature another, wonderful song by this group. I featured it almost two years ago in this Jukebox Saturday Night edition


"Summer Madness" by Kool & The Gang from the group's Light of the Worlds album (1974)

As I wrote then, this is an amazing and seminal funk/jazz fusion piece that can be appreciated over and over. This particular one is the shorter version.

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And, as promised, here is another song to end on an upbeat note by this quintessential 1970s R&B, funk, soul, disco, and jazz band* …


"Celebration" by Kool & The Gang from the group's hit album Celebrate! (1980)

I remember this song being played as the culmination of a roller skating-outing by my 5th grade class in Killeen, Texas in May 1981 on or about the last day of the school year. I remember my teacher -- Mrs. Beverly Owens -- dancing joyously to it. Some day I'll have to write an entry about her.

I was attending Peebles Elementary School during my stint with my mom and Ray, who was stationed at Fort Hood at the time.

Shortly thereafter, I went back to New Jersey to visit my dad and grandparents for the summer, and I had one of my best summers at Trade Winds Beach Club in Sea Bright. That was also the summer that my childhood best friend, Jonathan, and I actually became best friends and would remain so for five years. I stayed in touch with him for years and occasionally saw him.

Finally, about 9 months ago I realized he wasn't interested in being friends any longer and that was that.

*To be clear, Kool & The Gang still exists and actively tours with two of the original members, brothers Robert "Kool" Bell and Ronald Bell, part of the band. Here is the band's website.

OK, that's all for now. For an update, see my previous entry.

My next planned entry will be late Monday or Tuesday, although I might try to post another topical entry later tonight.

--Regulus

Saturday Evening Post for July 14th, 2018: High Summer, Low Tide, & Flash Drought Edition

**This entry was posted July 14th, 2018 **

Incredibly beautiful coastal imagery at Praia da Marinha, Logoa, Portugal

The seaside beach images in this entry are taken from this MSN image compendium article: 27 Stunning Beaches You Have to See to Believe.

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Saturday night.

I'm not feeling well with a headache that is the after effects of last night. I also have a touch of gastro-issues involving the Bight of Biafra region (hopefully, not associated with the fact that I ignored the brief "Boil Water" advisory D.C. Water issued. I think I'm dying. Oh, well.

Ora Beach, Indonesia

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I made it to the gym several hours ago but that didn't have the usual effect of making me feel better. Anyway, I'm in for the night starting my usual Saturday night routine -- blogging, making dinner, and laundry while watching MeTV's Super Sci-Fi Saturday Night lineup and its subsequent Red-Eye Sci-Fi Sunday into the wee hours.

The episode of Wonder Woman was "The Bushwhackers" (and it guest starred the late Roy Rogers).

The Svengoolie-hosted monster movie is the 1966 comedy-drama film The Ghost and Mr. Chicken starring Don Knotts. After two 30-min episodes of Batman, the Star Trek: TOS episode at 11 p.m. is "The Empath" and the Battlestar Galactica episode at 12 a.m. is the first part of the pilot episode "Saga Of A Star World (aka Battlestar Galactica): Part 1."

Kolchak: The Night Stalker is airing the episode "Bad Medicine" at 1 a.m. Rounding out the lineup is Lost in Space at 2 a.m. ("The Challenge"), Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea at 3 a.m. ("The Amphibians"), and Land of the Giants at 4 a.m. ("The Inside Rail").

Given how I feel, it is unlikely I will make it to Land of the Giants.

The weather continues to suck big time as we are in what the CWG dubbed in this entry several days ago a "flash drought."

Hot day in Washington, D.C., July 2018; photo by Brian Swogger and featured in the above-linked CWG entry.

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There has been no measurable rainfall at KDCA since June 27th -- and since any is unlikely tomorrow, it will have been the driest first half of July on record officially in Washington, D.C.

However, the forecast for early in the workweek is more typical summertime fare: Hot, humid, and a moderate chance of thunderstorms ahead of a frontal passage by late Tuesday.

Here is the LWX discussion:

This frontal boundary will approach our region Tuesday afternoon into evening. Ahead of this boundary the region will be in a prefrontal zone leading to advection of warm and moist air into our area. Models are indicating Precipitable water values reaching up into 2 to 2.3 inch range.  The high PW values along with high temperatures in the low 90s will create conditions for the formation of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

The cold front looks to move through the region later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Rain associated with this system looks likely late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening.

The GFS 12Z and 00z Euro are in pretty good agreement that the frontal boundary will move through our region some between 8pm and 12am Tuesday.

Positano Beach, Amalfi Coast, Italy.

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OK, I'm going to end this entry now.

Jukebox Saturday Night entry to follow momentarily …

--Regulus